Tag Archives: US Debt

SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY REPORT – FED FINANCES MOST OF US DEFICIT – WALL STREET JOURNAL SAYS US HAS CHINA WHERE WE WANT THEM, NOT ON YOUR LIFE!!

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SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY REPORT – FED FINANCES MOST OF US DEFICIT – WALL STREET JOURNAL SAYS US HAS CHINA WHERE WE WANT THEM, NOT ON YOUR LIFE!!

THE DEFICITS AND THE FED

The new fiscal year for the US government started October 1st. In the two months ending 11/30, the current deficit has been $337B, up 10.4% from a year earlier, headed comfortably over $1T for the current year, up from $984B.  As always, the increase in debt is higher, up $360B, the difference being the “off-budget” spending, mostly to finance the deficit in the social security entitlement account. Most years, this off budget spending totals a couple of hundred billions, still a serious amount of money.

It’s no coincidence that the Fed Balance Sheet has increased, from 9/25 until 11/27 by $194B so the Fed has financed about 57% of the two month operating deficit. It’s clear therefore that the Fed has no choice but to continue expansion of its balance sheet. Now at $4.095T, it is clear that a new high above $4.5T is in the cards by the end of the current fiscal year ending 9/30/20.  Of course, the old high was put in place to stimulate growth in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The new high will take place in the middle of “the greatest economy the country has ever experienced.”

THE QUESTION: What’s the matter with this picture?

THE ANSWER: In the 2008-2009 crisis the Fed balance sheet went up by $3.5T. Might the Fed need to take its balance sheet to at least $7-8T to forestall the next downturn. With any addiction it always takes a bigger hit to maintain the high. Economic policy would be simple if recessions (and worse) could be easily avoided by the printing of new money. Do you not suppose that a price must be paid at some point ? It’s trite but true: if something can’t go on forever, it won’t.

OUR LEVERAGE, OR LACK THEREOF, NEGOTIATING WITH CHINA

Today’s Wall Street Journal describes how the US is in a relatively strong bargaining position relative to trade negotiations. We respectfully disagree. (1) Both economies are increasingly burdened  by debt and supported by government spending.  China, though growth is apparently slowing to a mid single digit pace, with financial strains to be sure, still owns the fastest growing major economy in the world. The US, with its own set of economic distortions, is growing at a tepid 2% rate. (2) China, though diversifying away from dollar denominated securities, still owns over $1T of our debt, and could create havoc by forcing worldwide interest rates higher with their sales. While the markdown on their remaining position might create some discomfort at home, this remains a possibility (3) China can offset new tariffs by weakening the Yuan, requiring retaliation by the US and other trading partners (4) China is dedicated over the long term to joining, or replacing, the US Dollar with the Yuan as a reserve currency. Most students of the situation believe that China is very substantially understating gold reserves. We believe that many other Chinese agencies besides the People’s Bank of China have been buying physical gold, and far more than the PBOC has reported. Add the fact that adversarial Russia continues to purchase physical gold. Nothing would please China, or Russia, more than to replace the US Dollar with a new reserve currency that is backed by gold, and we believe that is where the worldwide monetary system is headed. It so happens that China and Russia are in the best position to do so. The key question remains: when ???

Roger Lipton

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SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE – THE DEFICITS AND DEBT – HERE WE GO AGAIN!

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SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE

The general capital markets were up modestly in July, gold bullion was down 2.3%. The gold mining stocks were down about 3.5%.  Most importantly, our conviction hasn’t changed regarding the long term outlook for our portfolio that is heavily invested in gold mining stocks.

While last month we outlined a group of tangible factors that support our thesis, it could be useful to go back to the biggest single reason that gold will be the surviving “currency”, protecting purchasing power best. The worldwide credit pyramid that has fueled the economic growth over the last forty years must be liquidated. Debts must be paid off, and the numbers are too large for the worldwide economy to grow out of the problem. “Default” will be the result, but refusal to pay is too obvious and makes the politicians look bad. Inflation is the only other solution since the voting public doesn’t understand who caused it. Gold has gone from $250/oz. to $1200/oz. since 2000, starting with the President GW Bush debts to finance the aftermath of 9/11 and then the two wars. Gold doubled from $900 in ’09 and the gold mining stocks quadrupled and more) as the deficit spending ramped up even further under President Obama.

Here we go again: The projected US deficit in the fiscal year ending 9/30/18 is projected to be about $800B, up from $600B last year. However, the cumulative debt in the 10 months ending today ($21.2 trillion) is already one trillion dollars higher than last September and is projected to be higher by $1.2 trillion by 9/30.

Only in governmental accounting can the annual deficits not total the cumulative increase in debt. This is not new. You have no doubt heard from politicians and economists who are concerned about the future deficit spending. Republicans are concerned when Democrats are in power, and now the situation is reversed. However, they don’t talk about the excess debt, on top of the budgeted spending, called other borrowing. Over the last ten years, the cumulative debt increase has exceeded the total of annual deficits by a cool three trillion dollars. People, this is a lot of money. While the annual deficits going forward are projected to be over a trillion dollars annually over the next decade, you can only imagine what the cumulative debt will look like after the other borrowing. We have described the situation in terms of US debts, but enormous potential credit problems also overhang the economies of China, Japan, and the Eurozone, the largest after the USA. What the endgame looks like is unknown, but it won’t be pretty.

Stay healthy. Stay financially flexible.

Roger Lipton

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SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE – BUDGETS & DEFICITS – TALK ABOUT “FAKE NEWS”!!

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  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
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SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE – STOCKS UP BIG – BONDS AND GOLD DOWN – SUSTAINABLE?

To access this content, you must purchase Website Subscription.

INCLUDED IN YOUR ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION:

  • Broad economic insight. As described in “Restaurants/Retail – Why Bother?” the restaurant and retail industries provide a leading indicator of far broader economic trends. You no longer have to be the last to know.
  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
  • You are provided access to “Friends of Rog”, depending on your financial and operational needs. The outstanding individuals suggested here, have been personally “vetted” by Roger over decades. Roger receives no compensation based on whether or not use their services.
  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.