Tag Archives: shak

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, DENNY’S, STARBUCKS, YUM BRANDS, SHAKE SHACK, PORTILLO’S – with transcripts

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, DENNY’S, STARBUCKS, YUM BRANDS, SHAKE SHACK, PORTILLO’S – with transcripts

BLOOMIN’ BRANDS (BLMN)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=4284&action=edit

DENNY’S (DENN)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/dennys-corporation-denn-new-writeup/

STARBUCKS (SBUX)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/starbucks-updated-write-up/

YUM BRANDS (YUM)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/yum-brands/

SHAKE SHACK (SHAK)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/shake-shack-inc-shak/

PORTILLO’S (PTLO)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/portillos-ptlo-in-process/

 

 

THE WEEK THAT WAS, ENDING MAY 20, JUST A FEW RATINGS CHANGES – with relevant transcripts, and WEEK TO COME

THE WEEK THAT WAS, ENDING MAY 20, JUST A FEW RATINGS CHANGES – with relevant transcripts, and WEEK TO COME

From earnings reports in prior weeks: Jack in the Box and Wingstop maintained at Neutral and Outperform, respectively

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4489787-jack-in-box-inc-s-jack-ceo-darin-harris-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507053-wingstop-inc-s-wing-ceo-michael-skipworth-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

From a week ago: JIM SANDERSON and BRIAN VACCARO upgrade Shake Shack to Buy and MARKET PERFORM, respectively.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507719-shake-shack-inc-shak-ceo-randy-garutti-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

THE WEEK TO COME: only two companies scheduled to report

Thursday 5-26 Before Market Open Jack In The Box (JACK) Q2

https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/445663988

Thursday 5-26 After Market Close Red Robin (RRGB)  Q1 

https://ir.redrobin.com/news-events/ir-calendar/detail/19110/q1-2022-earnings-conference-call

 

 

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: TEXAS ROADHOUSE (TXRH), SHAKE SHACK (SHAK), SWEETGREEN (SG), PORTILLO’S (PTLO), PAPA JOHN’S (PZZA) with transcripts

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: TEXAS ROADHOUSE (TXRH), SHAKE SHACK (SHAK), SWEETGREEN (SG), PORTILLO’S (PTLO), PAPA JOHN’S (PZZA) with transcripts

TEXAS ROADHOUSE

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/03/texas-roadhouse-updated-write-up/

SHAKE SHACK

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/03/shake-shack-inc-shak/

SWEETGREEN

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/sweetgreen-sg-in-process/

PORTILLO’S

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/04/portillos-ptlo-in-process/

PAPA JOHN’S

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/03/papa-johns-pzza-corporate-description/

THE WEEK THAT WAS, ENDING 5/6, LOT’S OF EARNINGS REPORTS, A FEW RATINGS CHANGES, MORE ACTION IN THE WEEK TO COME

THE WEEK THAT WAS, ENDING 5/6, LOT’S OF EARNINGS REPORTS, SEVERAL RATINGS CHANGES, MANY MORE DATA POINTS IN THE WEEK TO COME  – links to transcripts provided

Starbucks reports, only change is David Palmer upgrading. Nobody wants to be negative. NICOLE REAGAN, JOHN GLASS, CHRIS CARRIL and JON TOWER stay neutral. LAUREN SILBERMAN, JEFFREY  BERNSTEIN, DAVID PALMER and ANDREW CHARLES continue to like it.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506511-starbucks-corporation-sbux-ceo-howard-schultz-on-q2-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

Denny’s reports, NICK SETYAN still likes it.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506545-dennys-corporations-denn-ceo-john-miller-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506597-dennys-corporation-2022-q1-results-earnings-call-presentation

Restaurant Brands reports, only change is CHRIS O’CULL downgrading to HOLD. M.Stanley analyst maintains underweight. JON TOWER is neutral, while CHRIS CARRIL AND LAUREN SILBERMAN like it here.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506236-restaurant-brands-international-inc-qsr-ceo-jose-cil-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call

Yum Brands reports. No changes. LAUREN SILBERMAN is NEUTRAL while JON TOWER says BUY.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506810-yum-brands-inc-s-yum-ceo-david-gibbs-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

Brinker reports (and disappoints). DAVID PALMER downgrades to IN-LINE.  BRIAN MULLAN, NICK SETYAN, and M.STANLEY analyst are NEUTRAL. BRIAN VACCARO and ERIC GONZALES continue to be positive.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506810-yum-brands-inc-s-yum-ceo-david-gibbs-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

Wingstop reports (and disappoints). M. Stanley  analyst, NICK SETYAN, JON TOWER and ANDREW CHARLES all stick with it.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507053-wingstop-inc-s-wing-ceo-michael-skipworth-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

SHAKE SHACK reports. Everybody maintains. LAUREN SILBERMAN and BRIAN MULLEN are neutral, while PETER SALEH & NICK SETYAN like it.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507719-shake-shack-inc-shak-ceo-randy-garutti-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

PAPA JOHN’s reports. LAUREN SILBERMAN and NICK SETYAN continue to like it while BRIAN MULLAN is neutral.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507346-papa-johns-international-inc-pzza-ceo-robert-lynch-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call

 

THE WEEK TO COME:  MORE DATA POINTS

5-09 After Market Close RCI Hospitality Holdings RICK

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18781450-rci-2q22-call-on-twitter-spaces-on-monday-may-9th-first-to-use-twitters-audio-platform-for

5-10 Before Market Open First Watch Restaurant Gr FWRG

https://viavid.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1537799&tp_key=a214d47caa

5-11 Before Market Open Wendy’s WEN

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3723491/E08AEE34680249F3308CCBD4D8C0EEFE

5-11 Before Market Open Krispy Kreme DNUT

https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/2m66abcw

5-11 After Market Close Dutch Bros BROS

https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/370340001

5-12 Before Market Open Carrols Restaurant Group TAST

https://viavid.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1541750&tp_key=1245ec6318

 

 

 

 

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS FOR DENNY’S, WINGSTOP, CHEESECAKE, SHAKE SHACK, BJ’S and CHUY’S

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS FOR DENNY’S (DENN), WINGSTOP (WING), CHEESECAKE FACTORY (CAKE), SHAKE SHACK (SHAK), BJ’S (BJRI) and CHUY’S (CHUY)

Denny’s

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/dennys-corporation-denn-new-writeup/

Wingstop

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/wingstop/

Cheesecake Factory

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/cheesecake-factory-updated-write-up/

Shake Shack

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/shake-shack-inc-shak/

BJ’s

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/bjs-restaurants-2/

Chuy’s

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/chuys-holdings-updated-write-up/

 

 

ICR CONFERENCE PROCEEDS – SHAKE SHACK (SHAK – up 12%), ONE HOSPITALITY (STKS) AND DENNY’S (DENN) PROVIDE UPDATES

ICR CONFERENCE PROCEEDS – SHAKE SHACK (SHAK), ONE HOSPITALITY (STKS) AND DENNY’S (DENN) PROVIDE UPDATES

The ONE Group (STKS – 12.99, UP $0.34 –  strong fourth quarter, Manny is doing the job!)

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18625788-one-group-announces-preliminary-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2021-sales-results

DENNY’S CORPORATION (DENN – 16.26, down $0.12 – making steady progress under John Milller, Omicron not helping at the moment)

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18624177-denny-s-corporation-releases-preliminary-financial-results-for-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18624506-denny-s-corporation-to-expand-market-share-through-partnership-reef

SHAKE  SHACK Inc. (SHAK – 76.97, up 8.64 – continues recovery from Covid, Q4 comps up 2.2% in Q4, sharply improved from down 7.3% in Q3, Street relieved)

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18625775-shake-shack-provides-fourth-quarter-2021-business-update

 

RESTAURANT STOCKS – Recent Change in Analyst Ratings – SHAK, DNUT & QSR Downgraded, TACO & PZZA Initiated with BUY, LOCO and DPZ Initiated at HOLD

RESTAURANT STOCKS – Recent Change in Analyst Ratings – SHAK, DNUT & QSR Downgraded, TACO & PZZA Initiated with BUY, LOCO and DPZ Initiated at HOLD

Jim Sanderson downgrades SHAK to Neutral, Bill Chappell downgrades DNUT to Hold, Eric Gonzales downgrades QSR to Sector Weight, Todd Brooks Initiates TACO and PZZA at Buy, initiates LOCO and DPZ at Hold

This summary is planned to be a regular feature of Roger’s Review, along with a “heads up” prior to  next week’s reports. We welcome commentary from readers as to how these features can be more helpful.

Roger Lipton

BIG NEWS, AND WE MISSED IT!

BIG NEWS, AND WE MISSED IT!

THE NEWS

We wrote an article two days ago, reviewing the state of the restaurant industry at the one year anniversary of the pandemic.

As part of our “BOTTOM LINE”, advice to publicly held companies, we said “companies, in almost all cases, should sell company stock…..it may be a long time before you see these valuations again.”

Turns out, a week ago, Shake Shack (SHAK), carrying one of the very highest valuations ever seen for a restaurant company, did just that !

SHAK has a $4.8 billion valuation attached to a total of 311 locations, systemwide (183 domestic company operated, 22 domestic licensed, 106 int’l licensed). This values each of the current system locations over $15 million. There is a very long runway for growth and that’s a large reason why this system, with long term (before inflation, of course) AUVs projected to be just above $3M is so well regarded by the investment community.

The other major reason for the valuation is that SHAK was founded by the legendary Danny Meyer, and CEO, Randy Garutti, along with his team, is respected almost as much. Valuation aside, we’ve always given management the highest possible marks, both in terms of operating skills and financial management, and they have proven it once again. Are you ready for the terms of the recent offering ?

THE TERMS

They sold $225 million of senior convertible notes, for a net of $217.9 million, convertible 45% above the $117.53/share last Monday,  or $170.42/share. The notes are due in 2028 and THE INTEREST RATE IS ZERO. The only negative here is that the funds have to be paid back in seven years, unless the stock is above $170/share and who’s to say it won’t be 😊

In the meantime, the $217 M on top of the $184 M the Company had in the bank at yearend gives them $400M to build infrastructure and stores. When you have been given funds at zero percent interest, it doesn’t take much of a return to provide an attractive arbitrage. The company operated locations don’t provide a store level return anywhere close to what it was when the average volume in NYC locations was $7M but a $3M AUV should provide a store level EBITDA in the area of  25-30% annually and that’s a good cash return when the funds cost you nothing.

We suspect lots of other restaurant companies will not be far behind. That’s what ten years of a bull market, supported by worldwide interest rates close to zero, will do for you.

Roger Lipton