Tag Archives: BLOOMIN BRANDS

UPDATED “COMPANY DETAILED ANALYSES” (SUBSCRIBERS log in to view writeups on over 60 restaurant/franchising companies – PLANET FITNESS, BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, PORTILLO’S, CHUY’S, PAPA JOHN’S, FIRST WATCH – with relevant transcripts

PLANET FITNESS (PLNT)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/08/planet-fitness-inc-plnt/

BLOOMIN’ BRANDS (BLMN)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/08/bloomin-brands-updated-write-up/

PORTILLO’S  (PTLO)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/08/portillos-ptlo-in-process/

CHUY’S (CHUY)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/08/chuys-holdings-updated-write-up/

PAPA JOHN’S (PZZA)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/08/papa-johns-pzza-corporate-description/

FIRST WATCH (FWRG)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/08/first-watch-fwrg-in-process/

BLOOMIN BRANDS (BLMN)

PENDING THE RELEVANT COMPANY’S REGISTRATION WITH US, THIS PARTICULAR CONTENT IS LIMITED TO SUBSCRIBERS. For $100/year, SUBSCRIBE HERE. Other content is available by way of Home Page.

INCLUDED IN YOUR ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION:

  • Access to Corporate Descriptions of all publicly held restaurant companies and selected non-restaurant franchisors.
  • Broad economic insight. As described in “Restaurants/Retail – Why Bother?” the restaurant and retail industries provide a leading indicator of far broader economic trends. You no longer have to be the last to know.
  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.

UPDATED “COMPANY DETAILED ANALYSES” (we cover over 60 restaurant/franchising companies, for subscribers) – BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, POTBELLLY, MISTER CAR WASH, WINMARK – with relevant transcripts

BLOOMIN’ BRANDS (BLMN)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/05/bloomin-brands-updated-write-up/

POTBELLLY (PBPB)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/05/potbelly-pbpb-in-process/

MISTER CAR WASH (MCW)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/05/mister-car-wash-mcw/

WINMARK (WINA)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/05/winmark-corporation-wina/

UPDATED “COMPANY DETAILED ANALYSES” (we cover over 60, for subscribers) – SHAKE SHACK, BJ’S RESTAURANTS, CHEESECAKE FACTORY, BLOOMIN’ BRANDS – with relevant transcripts

SHAKE SHAKE (SHAK)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/02/shake-shack-inc-shak/

BJ’S RESTAURANTS (BJRI)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/10/bjs-restaurants-2/

CHEESECAKE FACTORY (CAKE)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/11/cheesecake-factory-updated-write-up/

BLOOMIN’ BRANDS (BLMN)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/02/bloomin-brands-updated-write-up/

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, DENNY’S, STARBUCKS, YUM BRANDS, SHAKE SHACK, PORTILLO’S – with transcripts

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, DENNY’S, STARBUCKS, YUM BRANDS, SHAKE SHACK, PORTILLO’S – with transcripts

BLOOMIN’ BRANDS (BLMN)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=4284&action=edit

DENNY’S (DENN)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/dennys-corporation-denn-new-writeup/

STARBUCKS (SBUX)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/starbucks-updated-write-up/

YUM BRANDS (YUM)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/yum-brands/

SHAKE SHACK (SHAK)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/shake-shack-inc-shak/

PORTILLO’S (PTLO)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/05/portillos-ptlo-in-process/

 

 

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS FOR: BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, KRISPY KREME, TEXAS ROADHOUSE, CRACKER BARREL, ARK RESTAURANTS AND NOODLES

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS FOR: BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, KRISPY KREME, TEXAS ROADHOUSE, CRACKER BARREL, ARK RESTAURANTS AND NOODLES – with conference call transcripts

BLOOMIN’ BRANDS (BLMN)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/bloomin-brands-updated-write-up/

KRISPY KREME (DNUT)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/krispy-kreme-dnut-in-process/

TEXAS ROADHOUSE (TXRH)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/texas-roadhouse-updated-write-up/

CRACKER BARREL (CBRL)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/cracker-barrell-cbrl-write-up/

ARK RESTAURANTS (ARKR)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/ark-restaurants-arkr-new-writeup-performing-solidly/

NOODLES (NDLS)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/noodles-ndls-q4-results-were-promising-updated-writeup/

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS – BBQ, BJRI, BLMN, EAT, CBRL, DRI

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS – SHORTLY WILL INCLUDE VIRTUALLY EVERY PUBLICLY HELD RESTAURANT COMPANY  – to be updated each quarter

The summaries we show, while not complete in detail and involve a number of approximations, provide a good starting point for our own investment banking activities and will hopefully do the same for our readers.

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/bbq-holdings-bbq-in-process/

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/bjs-restaurants-2/

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/bloomin-brands-updated-write-up/

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/brinker-international/

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/cracker-barrell-cbrl-write-up/

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/darden-restaurants/

 

 

 

FEEDBACK FROM BLOOMIN’ BRANDS (BLMN) – REGARDING OFF PREMISE SUCCESS AND  CORPORATE BREAK EVEN POINT

FEEDBACK FROM BLOOMIN’ BRANDS (BLMN) – REGARDING OFF PREMISE SUCCESS AND CORPORATE  BREAK EVEN POINT

We continue to look for new data points that will help us understand which restaurant chains have the best chance to survive, then prosper, and when.

We’ve previously asked the question as to how much of the new off-premise business will be retained as the dining room activity rebuilds, and that jury is still out. We’ve suggested that store level margins will suffer as dining rooms are only 25-50% open and operating expenses (especially labor and new sanitizing requirements) burden the bottom line. Our article in mid-May, describing developments at Darden (Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse) suggested that YTY same store sales have to get back to something like down 25% to approximate corporate cash flow break even. All of that is confirmed by commentary from Bloomin’ Brands on May 5th, as well as highly qualified Michael Halen, at Bloomberg Intelligence, just this morning, 5/29.

From Management Conference Call, May 5th:

      “Have to get back to down 20-25% to be cash flow breakeven…. For our brands, we talked a lot about Outback and things and Carrabba’s on off-premises. But Bonefish and Fleming’s have taken it from virtually nothing. Bonefish had some, Fleming’s had hardly anything…..So I think at Bonefish, we’ve seen it. We’ll see what happens at Fleming’s…As of  May 5th: 2/3 takeout, 1/3 delivery (half and half third party/in house).”

As described below by Michael Halen, off-premise revenues at Outback and Carabba’s had tripled, from an average of 18%, so we figure overall sales were running down YTY an average of approximately 46%. Management also confirmed, above, that sales have to recover to roughly a negative  20-25% to approximate corporate cash flow breakeven.

Per: Michael Halen at Bloomberg Intelligence, on 5/29/20

“Bloomin’s same-store sales may drop double digits in 2020 as dining-room closings and high unemployment hurt sales, yet a strong off-premise business at Outback will mitigate losses. We see Outback’s in-house delivery service as a competitive advantage as it has wider margins, control of service and access to customer data.

“Off-Premise Sales as % of Total Before Coronavirus

(Bloomin’ Brands)Outback Steakhouse 15% & Carraba’s 21%, Cheesecake Factory 17%, Cracker Barrel 9%,Applebee’s 13%, IHOP 10%,Olive Garden 17%, Brinker (Chili’s&Maggiano’s 17% Texas Roadhouse 7%

Bloomin’s decision to prioritize direct delivery over third-party aggregators created a competitive advantage over casual-dining peers, as we see it. This includes wider margins, access to customer data — which allows for personalized marketing — and significantly faster delivery times (35 minutes). According to management, 74% of customers prefer self-delivery for the superior service and safety it provides. “Delivery is profitable, with more than 630 units offering the service. Bloomin’s recent partnership with DoorDash complements the existing self-delivery platform and expands the company’s reach to new customers.

“Delivery sales are now split evenly between in-house and third-party providers. Off-premise sales almost tripled from the beginning of March into the end of April. (05/29/20)”

OUR COMMENTARY

Aside from the typical description of off-premise sales building rapidly through April and early May, and the confirmation of corporate breakeven for full service casual diners around a negative 20-25%, we think the movement to self-delivery may prove to be an important new development. We are all aware of the extra expense, management challenge and corporate liability of self-delivery. However, control of “the last mile”, more complete customer interaction and the elimination of delivery charge from third parties could make self-delivery an increasingly attractive option. The 74% surveyed preference of customers toward self-delivery could prove to  be “anecdotal” but might also be an important indicator. Self delivery might especially appeal to regional chains, as opposed to multi-national giants, for whom The Brand is an important competitive advantage.

CONCLUSIONS

  • Off-Premise is here to stay
  • Overall margins will be hindered until restaurants get well over a negative 20%, back to at least full capacity, 
  • Cash breakeven for full service casual dining operators is approximately down 20-25% YTY
  • Self-Delivery is at least worth considering

Roger Lipton