Tag Archives: CMG

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL (CMG)

ANNUAL – per Yahoo/Finance

QUARTERLY – per Yahoo/Finance

ENTERPRISE VALUE/TTM ADJUSTED EBITDA per Lipton Financial Services

MOST RECENT CONFERENCE CALL TRANSCRIPT

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4620249-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-cmg-q2-2023-earnings-call-transcript

For 2023, management is anticipating the following:

Third quarter comparable restaurant sales growth in the low to mid-single digit range. Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the mid to high-single digit range. 255 to 285 new restaurant openings (including 10 to 15 relocations to add a Chipotlane), which assumes utility, construction, permit and material supply delays do not worsen. An estimated underlying effective full year tax rate between 25% and 27% before discrete items

 

 

UPDATED “COMPANY DETAILED ANALYSES” (we cover over 60, for subscribers) – YUM CHINA, CHIPOTLE, RCI HOSPITALITY, NATHAN’S FAMOUS- with relevant transcripts

note: since you received this email, you are obviously a subscriber. DON’T FORGET TO LOG IN, TO ACCESS THE FOLLOWING ANALYSES 🙂

YUM CHINA (YUMC)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/02/yum-china-holdings-yumc-in-process/

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL (CMG)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/02/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-updated-writeup/

RCI HOSPITALITY (RICK)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/02/rci-hospitality-rick-in-process/

NATHAN’S FAMOUS (NATH)

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2023/02/nathans-famous-nath-in-process/

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: CHIPOTLE (CMG), WINGSTOP (WING), TX ROADHOUSE (TXRH), BLOOMIN’ BRANDS (BLMN) with relevant transcripts

CHIPOTLE

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/08/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-updated-writeup/

WINGSTOP

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/08/wingstop/

TEXAS ROADHOUSE

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/08/texas-roadhouse-updated-write-up/

BLOOMIN’ BRANDS

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/08/bloomin-brands-updated-write-up/

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHOCOLATE (RMCF), DOMINO’S (DPZ), CHIPOTLE (CMG) & CHEESECAKE FACTORY(CAKE)

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHOCOLATE (RMCF), DOMINO’S (DPZ), CHIPOTLE (CMG) & CHEESECAKE FACTORY(CAKE)

ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHOCOLATE FACTORY

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/06/rocky-mountain-chocolate-rmcf-in-process/

DOMINO’S

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/03/dominos-pizza-dpz-updated-writeup-and-conclusion/

CHIPOTLE

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/02/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-updated-writeup/

CHEESECAKE FACTORY

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/03/cheesecake-factory-updated-write-up/

 

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: CHIPOTLE (CMG), CHEESECAKE FACTORY (CAKE), McDONALD’S (MCD), DOMINO’S (DPZ) – with transcripts

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS: CHIPOTLE (CMG), CHEESECAKE FACTORY (CAKE), McDONALD’S (MCD), DOMINO’S (DPZ) – with transcripts

CHIPOTLE

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/02/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-updated-writeup/

CHEESECAKE FACTORY

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/03/cheesecake-factory-updated-write-up/

McDONALD’S

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/mcdonalds/

DOMINO’S

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/03/dominos-pizza-dpz-updated-writeup-and-conclusion/

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS FOR: CHIPOTLE, RCI HOSPITALITY, RESTAURANT BRANDS, YUM BRANDS, YUM CHINA

UPDATED CORPORATE DESCRIPTIONS FOR: CHIPOTLE (CMG), RCI HOSPITALITY (RICK), RESTAURANT BRANDS (QSR), YUM BRANDS (YUM), YUM CHINA (YUMC)

CHIPOTLE

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-updated-writeup/

RCI HOSPITALITY

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/rci-hospitality-rick-in-process/

RESTAURANT BRANDS

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2021/11/red-robin-gourmet-burgers-inc-rrgb-updated-writeup-inflection-point-could-be-at-hand/

YUM BRANDS

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/yum-brands/

YUM CHINA

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2022/01/yum-china-holdings-yumc-in-process/

THE WEEK THAT WAS, ENDING 1/28 – A FEW RATINGS CHANGES, EARNINGS REPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN

THE WEEK THAT WAS, ENDING 1/28 – A FEW RATINGS CHANGES, EARNINGS REPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN

ERIC GONZALEZ maintains DIN, CMG and MCD at Overweight – OTR Global downgrades  YUMC – Brian Vaccaro maintains DIN, CMG, CAKE, EAT at Outperform, BLMN at Strong Buy -G0RDON HASKETT upgrades CMG to Buy -ANDREW CHARLES maintains DPZ at Outperform – Jeff Bernstein maintains MCD at Overweight.

No new transcripts on above companies.

EARNINGS SEASON ABOUT TO BEGIN

2022-02-01 After Market Close Starbucks

2022-02-02 Before Market Open Brinker International

2022-02-08 Before Market Open Portillos – unconfirmed

2022-02-08 Before Market Open Nathan’s Famous – estimated

2022-02-08 After Market Close Luby’s – estimated
2022-02-08 After Market Close Yum China Holdings 
2022-02-08 After Market Close Chipotle Mexican Grill – 

2022-02-09 After Market Close RCI Hospitality Holdings – estimated

2022-02-09 Before Market Open Yum Brands  – estimated

2022-02-10 Wendy’s – Estimated

2022-02-11 Krispy Kreme – Estimated

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE WEEK THAT WAS – KRISPY KREME AND FIRST WATCH PICK UP SPONSORSHIP AT ICR CONFERENCE

THE WEEK THAT WAS – KRISPY KREME AND FIRST WATCH PICK UP SPONSORSHIP AT ICR CONFERENCE

Brett Levy Upgrades Texas Roadhouse to Buy, Brian Bittner Uprades Chipotle to Outperform. Christopher Carril joins Bittner in downgrading  Starbucks.  Sara Senatore Initiated Krispy Kreme with a Buy. Brian Vaccaro Initiated  First Watch with an Outperform.

None of the companies above had earnings reports lately but we have provided below a link for First Watch’s update this week and Krispy Kreme’s slide presentation

FIrst Watch

https://investors.firstwatch.com/news-releases/news-release-details/first-watch-restaurant-group-inc-announces-preliminary

Krispy Kreme

https://investors.krispykreme.com/static-files/433bf0b5-c725-44ae-a03d-c64e7bab1a31

EARNINGS REPORTS TO COME

A quiet time. No reports scheduled until the last week of January. We will keep you posted.

BILL ACKMAN, WITH 41% OF ASSETS IN QSR, CMG AND SBUX COMBINED, IS STILL NOT WELL POSITIONED

BILL ACKMAN, WITH 41% OF ASSETS IN QSR, CMG & SBUX COMBINED, IS STILL NOT WELL POSITIONED

We wrote an article on October 11th, discussing the three major positions in Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital portfolio, within our knowledge base, that comprise a massive 41% of his $8.3 billion portfolio.

At the close of business, October 11th, Restaurant Brands (QSR) was $56.26, Chipotle (CMG) was $434.06, and Starbucks (SBUX) was $54.87. Our conclusion on October 11th was that he should switch his QSR immediately into McDonald’s (then at $163.98), sell his CMG to take advantage of the huge move since new management has been installed, and hold his SBUX (which has moved up nicely).

We have no reason to think that he has made any moves in the last several weeks, but Restaurant Brands, McDonald’s and Chipotle have all reported third quarter results. Starbucks reports tonight.

From the close of business October 11th to last night’s closing price, Restaurant Brands, at 53.06 was down 5.7%, or $85M on the $1.5B position. McDonald’s, at $178.42 was up 8.8%, so would have made Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital a profit of $132M. Chipotle closed at $465 so Ackman would have foregone a profit of 7.1% or $63M on his $900M investment.

Our advice, less than three weeks ago, to Ackman can definitely be considered “theoretical” in terms of the practical ability to switch $1.5B positions instantly, or sell $900M worth of Chipotle on the spur of the moment, and Ackman’s positions are established on the basis of long term prospects. Acknowledging that three weeks doesn’t “make a season” or prove a thesis, Ackman’s portfolio would be ($132M+85M-$63M) a cool $154M better off, or 4.5% of the $3.4B in these three positions, especially costly when all hedge fund managers are fighting for every basis point in a difficult market environment.

Our points here are (1) too many multi-billion hedge funds, and other institutions are playing hunches rather than making well informed long term judgements. This is a function of not enough really attractive reward/risk investment propositions when trillions of dollars of capital are competing to generate “alpha” after nine years of a bull market (2) there is too much emphasis on short term performance, trying to “game” the monthly comps for example,  rather than evaluate long term strategic positioning (3) in too many cases, the self confidence of multi-billion dollar money managers is unjustified. They are very smart, hard working, in many cases have become very rich (which breeds inflated egos), and can’t be expected to know as much they should about every industry. Rather than make Bill Ackman an undeserved particular example: Eddie Lampert, still a billionaire, had no chance whatsoever to turn around Sears based on his strategies, and there were lots of highly experienced retailers that could have told him so. It has taken ten years to play out, but it was clear to many of us years ago that the brilliant and successful Lampert was wasting enormous time and money on Sears.

If we were speaking with Ackman today, we would suggest that it’s not too late to adjust the portfolio. The last three weeks are history.  Let’s see what happens over the longer term.

Roger Lipton