Tag Archives: CHIPOTLE

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC. – UPDATED WRITEUP

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Conclusion

Putting it all together, barring  further poor publicity from customer illness, legal problems, or other corporate issues, the worst should be behind Chipotle.  It seems that there is a lot more that can go right than wrong at this point. However, based on a multiple of forward earnings and EBITDA, CMG is now priced toward the high end of its historical price range. Over the short to intermediate term, the next three to six months, we consider that the stock has more downside risk than upside potential, especially in the light of the weakening general economic backdrop and the well known industry challenges. Longer term, if the fundamental recovery persists, we think the stock could at least keep up with the earnings progress.

Company Overview  

Chipotle Mexican Grill (as of 9/30/18)  is the owner and operator of a 2,461 unit (2,424 in the US and 37 internationally) fast casual chain of with a narrowly focused menu of burritos, tacos and salads generating $4.7B in sales in TTM through Q3’18. Two Pizzeria Locale restaurants, a fast casual concept, are also operated but not currently being expanded, by a consolidated subsidiary.  The company has long been a top performer in the industry but in 2015 its progress was interrupted by outbreaks of food-related illnesses in its stores. It has been in turnaround mode ever since. An incident of a norovirus in a Virginia store in mid-July 2017 was an unwelcome reminder the company may have not fully put the past problems behind it. New CEO, Brian Niccol, formerly CEO at Taco Bell, was installed in early 2018, which has led to numerous operational and marketing changes that have been viewed positively by employees, analysts and investors and CMG stock recovered from a low close to $250/share in early ’18 to a high above $500 just six months later. As Part of the restructuring, the Company announced in May that headquarters would be moved from Denver to Newport Beach, CA, with certain administrative functions consolidated in Columbus, OH as well as New York, NY. As a result, total related costs would be $44-$58M, of which $28.5M was incurred as of 9/30/18. The opening rate was approximately 200 stores per year, maintained for the first year or so after the 2015, moderated to about 130 for ’18, expected to be 140-155 in ’19.

Menu

The vision of founder and CEO, Steve Ells, is “food served fast but not fast food.”  It aims to be distinct from typical fast food in being prepared from fresh, high-quality ingredients using classic cooking methods, or “Food With Integrity” (FWI).   The FWI objective includes serving meats from humanely raised animals, without non-therapeutic antibiotics or added hormones.  FWI extends to sourcing a portion of its produce that is locally and organically grown when in season, among other related aims.

The menu is simplicity itself. The several burritos, tacos and salad items are assembled to order from 4 proteins (beef, chicken, pork, tofu) prepared with just 47 other ingredients. Sides are masa corn chips with guacamole or salsa. Beverages consist of soft drinks, fruit juices and (in some locations) beer and margaritas. Under the new management team, the menu  being carefully expanded, with many items currently in a test mode.

Operational Model & Unit Level Economics

(Per 2017 10-K)The average cash outlay for the 2017 class stores  (size 2,550 sq.ft. seating about 58) was $735k, net of $100k from landlords, plus estimated pre-opening expense of $75k.  For this total cash outlay of $810k  cash-on-cash returns of 40.4% can be calculated based on calendar ‘17 AUV of $1,940K & store-level EBITDA margin of 16.9%. However, we should point out that new stores have been disclosed to generate $1.4-$1.5M in the first year, presumably with a lower EBITDA than the company average. If the first year EBITDA is 12%, for example, on $1.5M, that would generate $180k of EBITDA which would represent a first year cash on cash return of 22.2%, so the 40.4% described above could be considered a “target” return in year three. Obviously, the magnitude of returns described above, both year one and targeted, are still impressive relative to industry peers, especially considering the difficulties of the last several years which are hopefully in the rear view mirror.

Company Background

 In 1998, with only 14 units, the company was bought by McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) which spun it off in 2006 to the public by which time it had grown to 500 locations. For the next 10 years CMG had an extraordinary run on the strength of its FWI brand promise.  The store count quadrupled (including establishing small beachheads in Canada and Europe).  Comps were consistently positive, averaging 8.4%, and Store AUV’s increased from $1.63M to $2.53M, driving 20% revenues CAGR.  Below the top line EBIT margin expanded over 1,000 bps to 18.8%, net income grew at a 29.8% annual pace and returns on invested capital hovered in the low to mid 20% range.

By 2015 the rapid growth outstripped the company’s ability to manage the quality of a widely disbursed supply chain consisting largely of small producers.  Early in the year, a pork supplier had to be eliminated due to quality issues, so pork products were not available in the stores for nine months.  Later in 2015 and in early 2016 outbreaks of food-borne, e-coli related illnesses among its guests were widely reported.  The reports triggered criminal and SEC investigations, and an investigation by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).  While the CDC investigation ended in June 2016, remnants of the other legal issues, including class action lawsuits are still pending.

Customers fled in the wake of these developments, voting with their feet that their belief in the FWI brand promise had been broken.  Needless to say, comps fell abruptly, dropping as low as a shockingly negative 29.7% in Q1’16 after which they recovered quarter by quarter, finally returning to positive territory, posting +17.8% in Q1’17 against the bottom in the prior year’s quarter (8.1% in Q2’172).   AUVs followed suit, dropping steadily in 2016 before rebounding to $1.957K in Q2’17 in sync with the bounce back in comps. As sales had risen through the years, quarterly corporate operating margins peaked at 19.3% (with 28.3% store level EBITDA) in Q3’15, before plunging to -5.6% (with 6.8% store level EBITDA) in Q1’16, after which they recovered somewhat steadily to 9.1% by Q2’17 (18.8% store level EBITDA), with store level EBITDA relatively stable since then, at 18.7% in Q3’18. Net income most recently has been materially affected by adjustments such as asset impairments and restructuring costs. Investors are not minding the adjustments, focusing on the slow but steady recovery in comps.

As indicated by the numbers, the worst is probably over and the company, under Brian Niccol’s leadership, continues to shift from damage control to sustaining a turnaround.  To this end the company is simplifying its operations. Despite the vision of simplicity for the model, management concedes operational procedures had accrued unnecessary complexity over the years, particularly in hiring and developing employees. The company has also overhauled its digital platform, making it more user-friendly, aiming to halve order fulfillment time. It has installed second make-lines for on-line sales at 750 locations as of Q3’18, expected to be system-wide by the end of ’19. These second lines can produce as many as 130 additional entrees in a typical 3 hour peak without additional labor. CMG is also expanding its catering business and exploring delivery.

The company believes these initiatives will propel it back to $2.5M AUV’s over time, 20%+ store level EBITDA margins and EPS comfortably above $10 in 2019, more like a $15.00 run rate longer term, but no timetable has been provided.

 Shareholder Returns

In the last 10 years, since a low of around $50/share in early 2009, CMG has appreciated about 9x in value to this point. While down from a high of $749 in July 2015 at the onset of its food-borne illness crisis, bottoming at around $250 in early ’18, the recovery has been dramatic since new management has been installed. CMG has always been richly valued with the forward P/E trading pre-crisis in a range between 25X and 55X, so the stock is currently assuming a successful turnaround and resumed growth. The company does not pay a dividend, but has long made modest repurchases of its stock. In the wake of the crisis, there was a material increase in repurchases, spending well over $1B to repurchase shares, mostly in the high $400 range. In Q3’18, a comparatively modest $19M of stock was repurchased, at an average price of $474, leaving $100M in the current buyback authorization. The Company remains debt free with over $300M of cash equivalents and an additional $300M of “investments” (not specifically defined).

Recent Developments (Per Q3’18 EPS Report and Conference Call)

Earnings in Q3’18, after adding back adjustments of $0.80 from charges related to asset impairment, corporate restructuring and other costs, was $2.16 vs. $1.33, up 62.4%. Comps were up 4.4%. Transactions declined by 1.1%, but a 3.8% price increase and menu mix upgrade provided the comp gain. Store level EBITDA increased from 16.1% to 18.7%, driven by lower marketing costs, partially offset by repair and maintenance. Since store level EBITDA was 19.3% for nine months, Q3 obviously represented a sequential downtick, from 19.5% in Q1 and 19.7% in Q2. Cost of goods declined 160 bp to 33.4% of revenues. Labor costs were flat YTY, at 27.2%. The price increase offset wage inflation of 4-5%. G&A expense increased 10 bp to 8.9% of revenues. Digital sales grew to 11.2% of sales, increasing 48.3% YTY. New restaurants in the quarter totaled 28, with 32 closed or relocated. A new marketing strategy, “For Real”, was unveiled, accompanied (of course) by continued operational focus. Guidance for all of ’18 continues to be comps in the low to mid single digit with new openings at the lower end of the previously announced range of 130-150 units. The only formal guidance for 2019 is for 140-155 openings.

On the conference call: management talked about the encouraging attitude by managers at the annual All Manager’s Conference. The Company is making a conscious effort to participate with their millennial customer in terms of “cultivating a better world, seeking to disrupt the current food landscape, etc.” In addition to the expanding list of 750 second make lines, digital pick up shelves are in nearly 350 restaurants, with an aim to be in all stores by mid-’19. App downloads increased 25% QTQ, and there is strong momentum with delivery. Doordash has been a new partner since Q2, delivery service can also be made through the CMG app and website, and there seems to be “very little customer overlap”. There is a digital pick up lane at restaurants that physically accommodate the feature, and it will be expanded where possible. A loyalty program launched in September in three test markets looks promising. Lots of new products are being tested and key management personnel are still being added.

October sales started strong, up 4%, but Q4 comp is expected to be “penalized” by about 100 bp since a price increase last November is being lapped in about 1,000 restaurants. No guidance for 2019 comps is being provided since there are so many product and operational initiatives in progress. New stores have “opened at stronger levels” and the pace of new stores will be up modestly in ’19 vs. ’18. As mentioned after Q2, about 55-65 underperforming restaurants will be closed in the current year, 32 of which took place in Q3, a total of 38 for the YTD, so another 17-27 are targeted for Q4. Lower marketing expense of 2.5% in Q3, down 70 bp YTY was due to a timing shift into Q4 for the “For Real” campaign, which began in late September, and Q4 will therefore be in the low 4% area. Calendar ’19 is expected to be in the range of  3%. Depreciation in Q3 was 4.3%, an increase of 60 bp, due to accelerated depreciation on the closures. It was indicated that the relatively modest share repurchase program will remain at the current level until the restructuring program is completed.

When questioned about store margin objectives, management responded that it is a function of higher AUV’s. “When we get to $2.1M, we can be in the 21% margin. $2.2M is a 22% margin. Wage inflation is a bit of a wildcard. We can’t overcome that with transaction growth alone. That will require some careful timing and place in a menu price increase…..and there’s efficiencies of moving our customers from the front line to the second make line. And then it’s a matter of working with our delivery partners to make sure that the economics work for both of us and them.”

SO THAT’S A PRETTY GOOD WRAPUP !! (with thanks to CFO, John Hartung)

Conclusion (provided at the beginning of this writeup)

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BILL ACKMAN, WITH 41% OF ASSETS IN QSR, CMG AND SBUX COMBINED, IS STILL NOT WELL POSITIONED

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BILL ACKMAN, WITH 41% OF ASSETS IN QSR, CMG & SBUX COMBINED, IS STILL NOT WELL POSITIONED

We wrote an article on October 11th, discussing the three major positions in Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital portfolio, within our knowledge base, that comprise a massive 41% of his $8.3 billion portfolio.

At the close of business, October 11th, Restaurant Brands (QSR) was $56.26, Chipotle (CMG) was $434.06, and Starbucks (SBUX) was $54.87. Our conclusion on October 11th was that he should switch his QSR immediately into McDonald’s (then at $163.98), sell his CMG to take advantage of the huge move since new management has been installed, and hold his SBUX (which has moved up nicely).

We have no reason to think that he has made any moves in the last several weeks, but Restaurant Brands, McDonald’s and Chipotle have all reported third quarter results. Starbucks reports tonight.

From the close of business October 11th to last night’s closing price, Restaurant Brands, at 53.06 was down 5.7%, or $85M on the $1.5B position. McDonald’s, at $178.42 was up 8.8%, so would have made Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital a profit of $132M. Chipotle closed at $465 so Ackman would have foregone a profit of 7.1% or $63M on his $900M investment.

Our advice, less than three weeks ago, to Ackman can definitely be considered “theoretical” in terms of the practical ability to switch $1.5B positions instantly, or sell $900M worth of Chipotle on the spur of the moment, and Ackman’s positions are established on the basis of long term prospects. Acknowledging that three weeks doesn’t “make a season” or prove a thesis, Ackman’s portfolio would be ($132M+85M-$63M) a cool $154M better off, or 4.5% of the $3.4B in these three positions, especially costly when all hedge fund managers are fighting for every basis point in a difficult market environment.

Our points here are (1) too many multi-billion hedge funds, and other institutions are playing hunches rather than making well informed long term judgements. This is a function of not enough really attractive reward/risk investment propositions when trillions of dollars of capital are competing to generate “alpha” after nine years of a bull market (2) there is too much emphasis on short term performance, trying to “game” the monthly comps for example,  rather than evaluate long term strategic positioning (3) in too many cases, the self confidence of multi-billion dollar money managers is unjustified. They are very smart, hard working, in many cases have become very rich (which breeds inflated egos), and can’t be expected to know as much they should about every industry. Rather than make Bill Ackman an undeserved particular example: Eddie Lampert, still a billionaire, had no chance whatsoever to turn around Sears based on his strategies, and there were lots of highly experienced retailers that could have told him so. It has taken ten years to play out, but it was clear to many of us years ago that the brilliant and successful Lampert was wasting enormous time and money on Sears.

If we were speaking with Ackman today, we would suggest that it’s not too late to adjust the portfolio. The last three weeks are history.  Let’s see what happens over the longer term.

Roger Lipton

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BILL ACKMAN BETS $1 BILLION ON STARBUCKS – SHOULD YOU FOLLOW HIM?

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BILL ACKMAN BETS $1 BILLION ON STARBUCKS – SHOULD YOU FOLLOW HIM?

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Management (now managing about $8.3 billion), announced on Tuesday a new billion dollar holding in Starbucks. Typical of his disclosure of major new positions, he made a lengthy presentation at an investment conference. We will get to a discussion of his rationale regarding SBUX, but we’ve followed Ackman’s career, since we’re in the same business (on a much, much smaller scale), and a few highlights will likely be of interest to our readers.

His long term record is outstanding. According to Pershing Square’s website, since inception in 2004 through calendar ’17, the compound annual return, after fees, has been 13.6%, versus 8.7% for the S&P 500 index.  However, the really great years were the early ones, when returns from 2004 through 2007 were  up 42.6%, 39.9%, 22.5% and 22.0% respectively. The year’s 2007 through 2014 were still good, though not as spectacularly consistent,  down 13.3%, up 40.6% (must have been short in 2008), up 29.7%, down 1.1%, up 13.3%, up 9.7%, up 36.9%. The last four years, from 2015 through 2018 have been disappointing, down 16.2%, down 9.6%, down  1.6% and up something like 10% YTD in ’18.

Ackman has made some spectacularly big gains, since he makes big bets, and has had equally impressive losses. Among his largest gains have been MBIA, General Growth Properties, Platform Specialties, and Restaurant Brands (which is an outgrowth of his holdings in Burger King and Tim Horton’s, which merged). His losses have included JC Penney, Target and Valeant. He become a household name with a well publicized short position in Herbalife a few years ago, and finally exited the position after an extensive and expensive campaign to put the company out of business.  Ackman’s brilliance and tenacity are unquestioned. One could question, however, whether any money manager has the right to personally decide whether a company deserves to be in business. It’s one thing to announce a short position. It’s another to take it upon yourself to contact bankers and employees and anyone else you can find (in the case of Herbalife: their sales network) in an effort to discredit the organization.

Which brings us to Ackman’s current large bets within the universe that we know pretty well, namely his positions in Restaurant Brands (QSR), Chipotle (CMG), and, most lately, Starbucks (SBUX). His $8.3 billion portfolio is down quite a bit from $18.3 billion in 2015, no doubt due to his lackluster performance lately. His CMG is worth about $900M, his SBUX is worth about $1 billion, and his QSR is worth about $1.5 billion. These three positions, therefore, represent a total of about 41% of his $8.3 billion portfolio.

In summary, we don’t think this major portion of his portfolio will outperform the general market, or even the restaurant industry in general.

Regarding Restaurant Brands (QSR), by far the largest of the three positions: We’ve written extensively, which readers can access through our Home Page. In a nutshell, the stock is more than adequately valued, since the largest contributor to their EBITDA, Tim Horton’s, is a troubled chain, Popeye’s is too small to move the corporate needle much, and Burger King, though it has performed well under QSR’s leadership, continues to operate in a very competitive burger segment. The “low hanging fruit”, that was opportunistically picked by the QSR financial engineers, is gone, so the earnings progress of the past won’t be duplicated from this point forward. We refer readers, again, to our previous more extensive discussions. A heck of a case can be made, in terms of the fundamentals and the relative valuations, that QSR should be switched into MCD immediately.

Regarding Chipotle (CMG), still almost $1 billion holding, Ackman’s original position, taken a couple of years ago, in the 400s, after falling to a low of about $260, has come back to a profitable point, and Ackman’s has exited about 25% of his position. We wrote, a couple of years ago, that he had no “edge” relative to his knowledge of CMG. There was no undervalued real estate, or other opaque asset that  could be monetized. His opinion was no better than yours or mine whether the brand could, or would, regain its previous popularity. Ackman has gotten lucky, because CMG has run back to $440 today (was briefly over $500 in mid ’18), and he is more or less even on the position. The huge move in the stock has more than adequately anticipated the fundamental recovery, now selling at over 50x ’18 EPS, and 27x trailing EBITDA. It is three full years since the crisis of ’15, and same store sales are only up by single digits against easy comparisons. Backing out menu price increases, traffic has barely improved from the lows. Further backing out the progress with their mobile app, in store dining traffic is still less impressive. Suffice to say: CMG, still challenged, is no bargain at current levels.

Regarding Starbucks (SBUX), the most recent purchase. Once again, we have written extensively on this situation, which we encourage you to access with the Search function on our Home Page. This is a great worldwide brand. They will continue to grow, especially in China. They will continue to buy back billions of their own stock. However: the future growth will be slower than in the past, so the price/earnings multiple is unlikely to expand, which Ackman is counting on. Ackman has discovered  that Starbucks is selling caffeine, and we’ve pointed out many times that selling an addictive product is a significant corporate advantage. (Maybe that’s why Constellation Brands, STZ, has invested $4 billion, for a 38% in Canopy Growth, CGC, a cannabis company with a market cap of $10B, over 20x ’19 estimated sales.) However, back at SBUX, food sales are about 25% of sales, so, backing out the increase in food sales,  caffeine sales are down over the last couple of years. In a nutshell, as in the case of his CMG purchase, he has no edge. His argument that the valuation of SBUX, in terms of earnings and cash flow, is well below the long term average, that is almost inevitable when growth expectations are less than was the case historically. Ackman expects SBUX to double in price over the next three years. Since the earnings per share will likely not grow at more than a mid-teen rate, even including stock buybacks (don’t forget the rising labor costs), he is counting on valuation expansion, which we consider unlikely. Having said all that, we consider it unlikely that he will lose money on this position over the next several years. Starbucks is a very strong company. It will just not be as profitable as he hopes.

In summary:

We don’t expect that Ackman’s performance, nominally and relatively, will improve by way of the above 41% of his portfolio. Starbucks is unlikely to do any major damage, but Restaurant Brands is substantially overvalued. He should switch immediately into McDonald’s or something else. He should consider himself lucky if he can exit Chipotle in one piece. From a broader standpoint: If this is the best Ackman (a very smart guy) can find in the marketplace today, it is not a good commentary on the state of the market.  situations.

Roger Lipton

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CHIPOTLE (CMG) – Stock Is 300 points lower over last two years – What to do now?

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CHIPOTLE (CMG) – 2 yrs. later, stock down over 50%, getting hammered again, what now?

We’ve written repeatedly about Chipotle over the last two years, almost always from a cautious standpoint. Readers can use the search function on our home page to revisit the various articles.

Earnings were released last night, and the stock is down $48 as this is written, to $276. per share. Investors and analysts were obviously very disappointed with the results and the prospect for near term improvement. We will not rehash the quarter here, since you can get that elsewhere. We will instead focus on our view relative to current store level performance, and the likelihood of better results.

Our focus, as a potential investor, should be on the existing system and the new stores that are being built. The AUV is now running at a rate of about $2M. The systemwide store level margin was 16.1% and 17.6% over the last three months and nine months, respectively. New stores are apparently doing about $1.5M with a first year store level EBITDA margin of about 10%. The average investment in leasehold improvements and equipment runs about $800,000. If we assume 18% EBITDA store level return on the current systemwide AUV of  $2M, and 10% first year EBITDA return on $1.5M, we get a cash on cash return of 45% and 19% respectively. These returns are more than satisfactory for the mature stores, but less than exciting in the first year. The problem is that, charitably speaking, the AUVs and margins have been challenged for the last twenty four months, and the big question is whether volumes and margins will improve or not.  This is especially so, with the stock still trading at over thirty times estimates for ’18 that will probably settle in the $7.00-$8.00 EPS range.

I think part of the extreme reaction by CMG stock this morning, is a result of what I would call encouraging commentary by Chipotle’s Chief Marketing Officer,  Mark Crumpacker,  and Bill  Ackman, a prominent institutional stockholder. In late September, Crumpacker’s internal email memo was somehow obtained, and  cited,  by Bloomberg, saying that “diners like its new queso dish, even though some dissatisfied customers took to Twitter and other social media outlets to trash it”.   Ackman, affiliated with two Board members, was quoted as saying that while “he hadn’t tried queso, people in his office had tried it and liked it” and the stock then trading around $312 “is extremely cheap”.  He also said “I’m beginning to believe that Twitter is filled with a bunch of Chipotle short sellers.”

What’s somewhat surprising to me is that,  though Crumpacker’s internal memo was presumably  not intended for public distribution, some observers would assume that Ackman had an informed opinion regarding the impact of the queso introduction. The hope that Queso was doing very well, brought back to reality by last nights discussion, has been dashed, and may be contributing to the dramatic stock plunge this morning.

While the Company claimed to be satisfied with results of the rollout, indicating a high single digit sales lift when launched, then “leveling off” after initial trial. “Currently 15% of our customers continue to order queso”. As an analyst and an observer with no  horse in this race (I’m not long or short CMG right now.) I’ve tried it, found it adequate, but far from a “game changer”. It may or may not contribute a few points to the comp, but it is not an “Oh, Wow!”

Remaining Strategic Issues

Many critics of the Company over the last two years have questioned the continued construction of 180-200 new stores, over 10% unit growth, at the same time retooling the system to prevent further operational problems. Announced last night was a reduction of unit growth, to 130-150 in ’18. Steve Ells, CEO, described the thought process on the conference call last night as follows: “..as Scott (new Chief Restaurant Officer) got involved…it was very clear that, the analogy I would use is we’re changing the tire while the car’s still moving and here we have a lot of people that we need to train or retrain how to run a great restaurant…….opening up new stores is a big distraction. You have to start thinking about hiring people months and months in advance….you’ve got to train people in advance of the opening..turnover in a new restaurant often is high…..so it’s a distraction in a lot of ways.” To which I say: “Really?”  and “Too Little, Too Late!” It seems to this observer that 130-150 new stores could still be reasonably “distracting” from the ongoing challenge to regain old customers and attract new ones.

Another “strategic” decision that has been made,  predicted, by myself and others, to be foolish and expensive has been the huge expenditure to buy back stock, at valuations that have been far from inexpensive. Prior to the most recent quarter, about ONE BILLION DOLLARS was spent to buy back stock in the mid $400 range, on average. I wrote over a year ago that the company was “out of their mind” to be buying stock back, at over $500 per share, especially when they knew the upcoming news would not be good. The folly continues. In the most recent quarter, $102.5 million was spent, at an average price of $341. An additional $100M has been authorized. There is still over $500M on the balance sheet and no debt. Could have been over $1.5B.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD:

There are lots of initiatives that are in place, including the contribution from a number of highly qualified restaurant executives that have been added to the team. For details of this effort,  I  encourage interested observers to read the transcript of last night’s conference call. (https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/izb7479f)  It’s all promising, but challenging, especially in an environment that is generally unforgiving. Over the last two years, as the Chipotle brand has been undermined, new and old competitors have not been standing still.

In summary: My conclusion is about the same as it was two years ago, when CMG was over 100% higher. There is no rush to invest here, even with the stock down so substantially. The valuation is far from “cheap”. There are better alternatives if an investor wants to pay well over 30x expected earnings in calendar ’18.

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CHIPOTLE – 2 Yrs. Ago – Everybody wanted to be the next Chipotle – Today, Not So Much!!

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INCLUDED IN YOUR ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION:

  • Broad economic insight. As described in “Restaurants/Retail – Why Bother?” the restaurant and retail industries provide a leading indicator of far broader economic trends. You no longer have to be the last to know.
  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
  • You are provided access to “Friends of Rog”, depending on your financial and operational needs. The outstanding individuals suggested here, have been personally “vetted” by Roger over decades. Roger receives no compensation based on whether or not use their services.
  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.

CHIPOTLE (CMG) UPDATE – QUARTERLY REPORT COMING TOMORROW

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INCLUDED IN YOUR ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION:

  • Broad economic insight. As described in “Restaurants/Retail – Why Bother?” the restaurant and retail industries provide a leading indicator of far broader economic trends. You no longer have to be the last to know.
  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
  • You are provided access to “Friends of Rog”, depending on your financial and operational needs. The outstanding individuals suggested here, have been personally “vetted” by Roger over decades. Roger receives no compensation based on whether or not use their services.
  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.

CHIPOTLE UPDATE – STILL A STATE OF FLUX

To access this content, you must purchase Website Subscription.

INCLUDED IN YOUR ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION:

  • Broad economic insight. As described in “Restaurants/Retail – Why Bother?” the restaurant and retail industries provide a leading indicator of far broader economic trends. You no longer have to be the last to know.
  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
  • You are provided access to “Friends of Rog”, depending on your financial and operational needs. The outstanding individuals suggested here, have been personally “vetted” by Roger over decades. Roger receives no compensation based on whether or not use their services.
  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.

CHIPOTLE UPDATE – EARNINGS AND SALES PREVIEW – COMPANY REPORTS NEXT TUESDAY

To access this content, you must purchase Website Subscription.

INCLUDED IN YOUR ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION:

  • Broad economic insight. As described in “Restaurants/Retail – Why Bother?” the restaurant and retail industries provide a leading indicator of far broader economic trends. You no longer have to be the last to know.
  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
  • You are provided access to “Friends of Rog”, depending on your financial and operational needs. The outstanding individuals suggested here, have been personally “vetted” by Roger over decades. Roger receives no compensation based on whether or not use their services.
  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.

CHIPOTLE (CMG) IS ALL THE BAD NEWS OUT?

To access this content, you must purchase Website Subscription.

INCLUDED IN YOUR ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION:

  • Broad economic insight. As described in “Restaurants/Retail – Why Bother?” the restaurant and retail industries provide a leading indicator of far broader economic trends. You no longer have to be the last to know.
  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
  • You are provided access to “Friends of Rog”, depending on your financial and operational needs. The outstanding individuals suggested here, have been personally “vetted” by Roger over decades. Roger receives no compensation based on whether or not use their services.
  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.