Tag Archives: Twin Peaks

FAT Brands REPORTS THIRD QUARTER RESULTS, PLANS TO ADD FAZOLI’S BY MID-DECEMBER

FAT Brands REPORTS THIRD QUARTER RESULTS, PLANS TO ADD FAZOLI’S BY MID-DECEMBER

FAT Brands updated the financial community on its operating results for the third quarter, ending 9/30/21. It should be noted that major acquisitions have been taking place over the last twelve to fifteen months which, combined with the worldwide COVID effects, distort current and comparable results. Corporate management, analysts and investors must therefore look through the GAAP results and gauge the corporate progress and prospects by evaluating the basic health of the major brands.

Recall that Johnny Rockets was purchased in September, 2020. Global Franchise Group (GFG), with 415 unit Round Table Pizzas, closed on July 23, 2021. Twin Peaks, with 83 systemwide units, was acquired on October 1st, 2021 and Fazoli’s (214 units) is expected to close in mid-December. Johnny Rockets, when acquired, was projected by management to bring the “post-COVID, normalized” EBITDA run rate to $15-20M. GFG has been expected to add $30M (bringing the run rate to $45-50M). Management projects that Twin Peaks could add $25-30M (bringing the run rate to $70-80M) and Fazoli’s is projected to add $14.5-15M (for a new “post-COVID normalized” objective of $85-95M). The total portfolio, including Fazoli’s, will consist of about 2,300 units generating over $2 billion of sales.

The third quarter of ’21 was predictably much better than in ’20. Operating Income was $2.376M vs. a loss of $1.296M. The positive operating income was after an increase of $10M due to G&A and professional fees relating to the initial inclusion of GFG. Advertising expense also increased, from $0.8M to $5.5M, “reflecting advertising expenses from GFG and Johnny Rockets and the increase in customer activity as the recovery from COVID continues”. There was also a $2.053M “acquisition cost” item reducing Q3’21 Operating Income. After $7.1M of interest expense vs. only $123k in ’20, there was a pretax loss of $4.8M vs. a loss of $587k in ’20. CFO, Ken Kuick pointed out that the Revenue Run Rate entering ’22, assuming that COVID continues to fade, should be on the order of $340M annually ($85M/qtr.), versus the $29.8M just reported in Q3. Wiederhorn suggested on the conference call that the current quarter should show closer to $15M of Adjusted EBITDA, with the inclusion and synergies at GFG and the effect of Twin Peaks.

Relative to the basic health of the various brands, the earnings release noted that domestic same store sales were up 7% in Q3 vs. ’19 and worldwide same store sales were up 3.5% vs. Q3’19. While the int’l units, primarily Johnny Rockets, have been slower to reopen and rebuild sales, the third quarter improved 7.15% from Q2’21 to Q3’21. Portfolio wide, most notably at overseas Johnny Rockets, the number of closed stores was 52 at 9/30, down from 63 at 6/30 and 107 at 3/31. The franchise sales team “had a record quarter, closing nine deals that account for 166 locations. We expect unit growth to continue increasing in the coming months with plans to open 26 additional stores by the end of 2021 for a total of 85.” Management further described the pipeline of new units, which totals about 700 units within the current portfolio, over 800, including Fazoli’s. CEO, Wiederhorn, refrained from specifying over what period those locations would open but pointed out that new additional deals are being done all the time, and it is not hard to picture somewhere between 100 and 200 new units adding annually to the current 2,100 units (including Fazoli’s.) Wiederhorn again emphasized his expectation that the current $744M of securitized debt can be refinanced with a new rating, saving something like $25M of interest per year. Wiederhorn accurately pointed out that the predictable growth in the various franchised systems is “free” growth. The supporting systems are in place and additional capital is not necessary for the organic progress.

CONCLUSION:

The third quarter results included Johnny Rockets (bought a year ago), GFG from July 23rd, and Twin Peaks only for one week. Adding back to the $2.4M of operating income: the $2.1M of acquisition expense, some portion of the heavy $5.5M of advertising expense as well as the initial larger than necessary G&A at GFG, we would have suggested that the third quarter “normalized” (not yet “post-COVID”) EBITDA might have been in the area of $8-9M. FAT actually reported “Adjusted EBITDA” at $7.2M. Considering that the COVID is still a factor and synergies at GFG are just now being implemented, FAT was not far from the (GFG included) “post-COVID normalized” objective of about $12M quarterly ($45-50M annually). With the impressive new unit pipeline and the encouraging same store sales trends across most of the portfolio, it seems to us that the developing fundamentals are adequately supporting the long term “story”.  Our previous reports describing FAT Brands can be accessed by way of the SEARCH function on our Home Page.

Roger Lipton

FAT Brands (FAT) – WASTING NO TIME IN BUILDING MULTI-BRANDED FRANCHISED PORTFOLIO

FAT BRANDS (FAT) – CLOSES $250M SECURITIZATION, ANNOUNCES EXPANSION IN MIDDLE EAST, COMPLETES TWIN PEAKS ACQUISITION, WITH FIFTEEN BRANDS SETS STAGE FOR $80M OF POST-COVID 2022 EBITDA.

We last updated our previous reports on FAT Brands (FAT) on September 2nd, all of which can be accessed by way of the SEARCH function on our Home Page.  A great deal of progress has been announced in a short six weeks since then. Recall that, including the acquisition of the Twin Peaks sports bar chain, the company, now franchising fifteen brands, has guided to $80M of post-Covid 2022 EBITDA.

We provide below a summary of the group of press releases since September 1st, as well as publicly disclosed remarks relative to the third calendar quarter ending September 30th.

On September 7th, the Company announced a new 200+ unit development deal in the Middle East, including 136 brick and mortar locations plus 70 ghost kitchens. In partnership with Kitopi, the master franchisee of this deal, the expansion over the next five years will cover six FAT concepts, namely Fatburger, Johnny Rockets, Buffalo’s Café, Great American Cookies, Elevation Burger and Yalla Mediterranean. The brick and mortar locations, to be located in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, will add to Kitopi’s existing 70 cloud kitchens

On September 15th, the Company priced an offering of $250M of “Series 2021-1 Fixed Rate Asset Back Notes”, which have been used to partially fund the $300M acquisition of Twin Peaks. The weighted average fixed interest rate on the notes is 8.00%. As Andy Wiederhorn, CEO, stated: “This issuance gives us ample time to increase franchised locations of this extremely successful concept…prior to refinancing”. Wiederhorn obviously expects that the interest rate can be renegotiated in a relatively short time, just as he has done with previous securitizations.

On September 27th, the Company announced the opening of the 100th Fatburger, cobranded with Buffalo’s Express, in Arlington, TX. This is the second location for this particular franchisee, whose first location opened in June, 2020. This is the third location in the Dallas/Fort Worth area and the fourth in Texas.

On October 1st, only one month after announcing the planned transaction, the Company closed the deal. As reiterated in the release, the acquisition of Twin Peaks is expected to add $25-30M to FAT Brands’ previously expected post-Covid 2022 EBITDA, bringing the total to about $80M. Twin Peaks is especially notable for its steady unit growth, high average volumes, and impressive recovery (post-Covid) to well above 2019 AUVs and Same Store Sales.

THIRD QUARTER DATA POINTS

The above releases relate to long term growth objectives. In the meantime, The Company has publicly disclosed a number of data points relating to the third quarter, ending 9/30/21.

In the second quarter reported results, the Investor Presentation showed that the first three weeks of Q3 produced a portfolio AUV of $22,674, up 13% from $20,056 in Q2.

Within the Investor Presentation relating to the Twin Peaks acquisition, it was disclosed that, at Twin Peaks, Period 7 (July) annualized at $4.7M and Periods 5 through 7 annualized at $5.1M, compared to $4.5M in 2019 and $4.4M in 2018. Furthermore, Same Store Sales at Twin Peaks, compared to 2019, turned positive by 0.6% in P2,’21, and have increased every month to a positive 17.8% in P7’21.

The data points provided above, along with previously discussed development pipeline and unit openings, indicate that the third quarter should be encouraging to both equity and debt investors.

LD MICRO CONFERENCE on October 12th – WIEDERHORN COMMENTARY

CEO, Andrew Wiederhorn, pointed out that the development pipeline, across all brands is about 300 units, to be developed over the next four to five years, expected to grow the portfolio organically at 5-10% annually. The most recently acquired Twin Peaks, now 84 units, is expected to add eighteen restaurants in the next nine months, two thirds of which will be franchised. There are sixteen different franchisees within the Twin Peaks system. The Twin Peaks locations, without tenant allowances, cost $5-6M each, but sale/leaseback transactions generally reduce the out of pocket investment to approximately $2M, on which the franchisee can earn close to $1M annually, or a 50% cash on cash return. Wiederhorn expects that Twin Peaks can grow from the 100 unit level, to be achieved within a year, to double or triple that number over time.

CONCLUSION

FAT Brands is improving the quality of acquisitions over time, reflecting the growing level of acceptance from the lending community. Since FAT Brands came public in 2017 each  of the major brands that have been added have represented not only an expansion to the portfolio but an upgrade relative to stability and growth. While a number of smaller brands were acquired as well, Hurricane Grill and Wings was followed by Johnny Rockets, followed by Round Table Pizza and, most recently, Twin Peaks. Unit growth potential has been increasingly evident, especially so with Twin Peaks. The near term objective of $80M in EBITDA during post-Covid 2022 has been paid for with $750M of securitized funding at an average of about 7%, or $50M of interest expense. The current portfolio, without considering growth, would therefore be throwing off about $30M of free cash flow in the next year or so, about $2.50 per common share, hopefully more over time. At the same time, the Company has demonstrated an ability to refinance its early securitizations at reduced rates, has indicated an expectation to do the same in the future, which obviously increases the potential free cash flow from the current portfolio. As this strategy comes to fruition, the credibility of FAT common stock could obviously sell at a much higher level.

Roger Lipton