Tag Archives: negative interest rates

SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE – WE SUGGEST: THE FOUR MONTH CONSOLIDATION IN GOLD IS OVER

SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE – WE SUGGEST: THE FOUR MONTH CONSOLIDATION IN GOLD IS OVER

The US debt at 9/30/00, excluding unfunded entitlements,  just before President Bush took office was $5.7 trillion. Eight years later, at 9/30/08, just before President Obama, the debt was $10.0 trillion. Eight years later, at 9/30/16, just before President Trump, the debt was $19.6 trillion. Four years later, at 9/30/20, just before President Biden, the debt was $26.9 trillion.

                          

Quoting the most recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) update :

“At 14.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit in 2020 was the largest it has been since the end of World War II. Much of that deficit stemmed from the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and the government’s actions in response—but the projected deficit was large by historical standards ($1.1 trillion, or 4.9 percent of GDP) even before the disruption caused by the pandemic. In the CBO projections, deficits as a percent of GDP fall between 2021 and 2027 (from 8.6 percent of GDP to 4.0 percent), and then increase to 5.3 percent of GDP by 2030—more than one-and-a-half times the average over the past 50 years.”

It is worth noting that the CBO has consistently overestimated the projected growth (and tax receipts), underestimated the spending and therefore substantially underestimated the deficit. With that in mind, the CBO projected 8.6% deficit in the current year,  as a percent of GDP would amount to about $2 trillion so the US will pass the $30 trillion round number in calendar 2022. No matter what Modern Monetary Theory tells you, the debt matters because it is a proven drag on growth. Even if interest rates continue to be suppressed, only 1% on $30 trillion is $300 billion so that’s a guarantee that the deficit will continue to be a problem. It’s also a guarantee that interest rates will not go up much if the Fed can control it. If and (as we believe) when that is no longer the case, it will indicate that the Fed has lost control, inflation is about to take off, and all bets are off in terms of the economy and capital markets.

NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES HIT A RECORD

New records are being set as $18.4 trillion of global debt is now priced to yield less than zero, up from less than $8 trillion in March and a five year average of $10.3 trillion. As noted monetary historian, Jim Grant, points out: “nominal negatIve yielding debt had never been seen in material size  in 4,000 years of interest rate history prior to the current cycle, and recent happenings suggest that upside-down debt may grow larger still”.

Negative “real” yields, which subtract the inflation rate from the stated “nominal” interest rate creates a strong incentive for investors to reach for yield in the capital markets, no matter what form that risk might take. This TINA (There Is No Alternative) approach to investing is why Tesla, Doordash and $60 or $70 billion worth of SPACs are trading where they are as stock market averages his new record highs. It also means that savers not willing to play the TINA game are being screwed (no better way to put it ), to the benefit of central bankers and politicians who are kicking the fiscal/monetary can down the road. Negative interest rates also improve gold as an investment because the absence of interest or dividends is better than the negative yield on government debt.

We have pointed out before that negative “real yields”, along with lots of other current indicators, have strongly supported higher gold prices. We are admittedly surprised that the gold price and gold mining stocks have given back over half of the mid-2020 gains, and we attribute this “consolidation” to (1) The group had become a little too popular in the middle of the year and technically needed a correction to  shake out the weak holders and set the stage for the next leg up (2) The stock market strength precluded a perceived need for a safe haven (3) The next trillion dollars of government fiscal stimulus was put on hold until after the election (4) The Federal Reserve balance sheet, above $7 trillion, is “only” growing by $150B/month, no longer a shock to the capital markets.

We do not believe that the current strength in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin is as much of a culprit as the factors above, since gold and gold mining stocks are far more of a long term “store of value” rather than the crypto currencies that are primarily trading vehicles.

We believe fiscal stimulus is coming shortly, to be followed by more fiscal/monetary support in just a few months and more after that, ad infinitum.

This point in time happens to coincide with gold bullion and the gold mining stocks trading just at the technical support price at the 200 day moving average. We are determined not to play it too cute with our holdings of gold mining stocks, trading out at a short term peak, and trying to time a re-entry. The long term potential is too compelling. The gold mining industry is the least expensive asset class we know of, not only protecting purchasing power over the long term, but a potentially very lucrative investment in nominal terms. We reiterate our belief that the gold price will increase by several times in value over the next three to five years and the gold mining stocks by a multiple of that. (Our investment partnership remains open to qualified investors.)

Roger Lipton

SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE – THE MOVE IN GOLD, AND THE GOLD MINERS, HAS JUST BEGUN!

SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE – THE MOVE IN GOLD, AND THE GOLD MINERS, HAS JUST BEGUN!

The capital markets continued to be supported by the Federal Reserve Bank’s continued accommodation, in its effort to counter the pandemic related slowdown. The Fed’s policy, to do “whatever it takes”, not even “thinking about thinking about” higher interest rates or tighter money, supported most asset classes, including gold bullion (up 10.8% in July, and up 29.8% YTD) and the gold mining stocks (which did even better). Our Investment Partnership’s portfolio, virtually 100% invested in gold mining stocks, has performed in a similar fashion. While we are pleased with the progress, we expect gold miners to continue to outperform bullion on the upside and feel it is only the top of the second inning for the major move to come. While gold bullion is now at an all-time high, the gold miners are still down more than 50% from their highs. We expect bullion to at least triple from here over the next 3-5 years and the gold miners to increase by a multiple of that. All the financial factors that the pandemic has brought into focus and magnified are still in play.

Prominent investment strategists at Goldman Sachs and other investment firms, as well as legendary investors such as Ray Dalio are now recommending gold and gold mining stocks as productive portions of a diversified portfolio. Virtually every point they make we have been discussing every month for seven or eight years. Goldman says gold is the “currency of last resort and there is more downside to come with interest rates”. Dalio points out that “China is an adversary, the dollar’s reserve status is at risk, there is no true ‘price discovery’ as the Fed is buying everything in sight, the deficits and cumulative debt are a huge burden on future economic growth, central bank balance sheets are exploding as they purchase stocks and bonds and gold bullion as well, all of which support an important allocation to gold”. Does any of this sound familiar?

In addition to the debt burden, another factor that slows the growth path is the aging population. The increasing portion of the US population represented by older people, similar to trends in Japan, China, and Europe, is shown in the following charts.

Lastly, an important feature of government spending in the US is the increasing burden of entitlements, social security in particular. Entitlements and defense make up about 75% of government spending, and that’s a major reason why the total budget is mostly (‘baked in the cake”. With everything else going on in the world, it is often forgotten that the social security system was put in place in the 1930s when the average life span of an American male was about 65, which today is about 80. There were also A LOT MORE workers contributing than recipients. The chart just below shows the steady contraction of that ratio, from 3.7 down to the low 2s.

The above chart is impressive….but the following chart shows numbers closer to the 1930s when FDR put the program in place, with 159 workers/recipient in 1940, decreasing to “only” 42 workers by 1945.

Combine the above charts dealing with Social Security with the reality of an aging population. Add to that what might be considered “anecdotal” in terms of our impression of the work ethic of the younger working age population. If “America’s Greatest Generation” of workers is being replaced by today’s youth, perhaps less convinced of the morality of capitalism, it is difficult to picture government spending coming down or GDP and productivity accelerating.

All of this is to say that central banks, around the world, will have no alternative to aggressive monetary accommodation. Governments, similarly, will do likewise with fiscal  measures. We can watch this play out currently on almost a daily basis, and this is at a scale unprecedented in modern business history. Gold bullion, based on many parameters which we have described previously, is as cheap now as it was in 1971, before it went from $35 to $850. At $850 it was likely “ahead of itself” but $300-400 would have been a rational range at that point. Accordingly, 8-10 times the current level, which discounted by 50% would be $8-10,000 per oz., can be justified today. The gold mining companies, leveraged to the price of gold, could (and should) go up by somewhere between two and four times that gain. This is the basis by which we suggest  that the gold mining stocks could increase by 10-20x their current levels.

With gold hitting all-time highs, and the gold miners at seven or eight year highs, you will no doubt hear a number of financial commentators suggest that “the easy money has been made”. Some will suggest taking profits, with an objective of getting back in at a lower level. We suggest that if you owned a stock that had gone from $11 to $20, but you think it will be $80 or $90 or $100 in a few years, would you sell it at $20 to try to buy it back at $19 or $18? Probably not :).

Over the very long term, gold should be considered a “store of value” rather than an “investment”. There is, after all, no dividend or organic growth.  At the present time, however, the investment characteristics of this asset class, substantially lagging the increased nominal prices of almost all others, are too compelling to ignore. That is why our investment partnership is 100% invested by way of the above approach.

Roger Lipton

GOLD & FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE

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  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
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  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.

UPDATE: GOLD and CAPITAL MARKETS

To access this content, you must purchase Website Subscription.

INCLUDED IN YOUR ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION:

  • Broad economic insight. As described in “Restaurants/Retail – Why Bother?” the restaurant and retail industries provide a leading indicator of far broader economic trends. You no longer have to be the last to know.
  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
  • You are provided access to “Friends of Rog”, depending on your financial and operational needs. The outstanding individuals suggested here, have been personally “vetted” by Roger over decades. Roger receives no compensation based on whether or not use their services.
  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.