SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE – STRONG DOLLAR HURTS GOLD? – NOT REALLY!
It is an accepted axiom, when viewing the performance and the prospect for the price of gold (in US Dollars) that a strong dollar does not allow gold to appreciate in price. Don’t believe everything you read. The following charts show the performance of gold (GLD) vs. the dollar index (DXY) over various time frames, from the last twelve months to the last ten years. The last twelve months have been particularly dramatic, and unexpected by many, as gold has moved steadily upward in spite of the DXY selling near its high. More importantly, you will see that in every case, over one year, three years, five years and ten years, the price of gold went up in terms of dollars, in spite of strength in the US Dollar vs. a basket of other currencies (DXY). Over the ten-year period, GLD was up about 30% while the DXY was up a little less than that.
ONE YEAR TO SEPT 2019
THREE YEARS TO SEPT 2019
FIVE YEARS TO 2019
10 YEARS TO 2019
In the interest of providing a complete picture: Past performance always depends on which time period you look at and different time periods can tell a different story. The ten-year period prior to the last decade, from 2000 to 2009, is illustrative. The GLD skyrocketed, up over 100% while the DXY was very weak. Gold, to be sure, did a lot better with a weak dollar, as shown below, but was still up consistently with a strong dollar, as shown above.
10 YEARS, 1999 TO 2009
Our conclusion: All other factors being equal, we would rather see a weak dollar if we are hoping for a higher gold price. However, it should be clear from the charts above that strength in the US Dollar has often been compatible with a rising dollar gold price. It is also worth noting that a relatively strong dollar provides a proportionately higher gold price in in terms of alternate currencies. To varying degrees, depending on timing and relative currency strength, gold has invariably protected purchasing power over the long term.
Roger Lipton