FAT Brands (FAT) TO REPORT Q3 THIS AFTERNOON – WITH SEVENTEEN BRANDS – ONE OF EARLIEST LOOKS AT SEPTEMBER QUARTER

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FAT Brands (FAT) TO REPORT Q3 THIS AFTERNOON – WITH SEVENTEEN BRANDS – ONE OF EARLIEST LOOKS AT SEPTEMBER QUARTER

Today at 5pm, FAT Brand will conduct their Q3 (September) earnings conference call. Considering that FAT is the franchisor of seventeen different brands, directing over 2,000 outlets from QSR concepts through full service casual dining, and represents one of the first reporters of September quarter results, this will provide analysts with some interesting data points. The link to the call is provided below.

Analysts will be interested to hear about FAT’s progress in building “post-Covid” Adjusted EBITDA toward the $90-95M run rate objective. Sales trends and unit openings will of course be interesting, as well as further build-out and visibility of the franchised unit development pipeline. Considering the recent rapid rise in interest rates, commentary regarding the strategy and likelihood of reducing debt service will also be of interest.

While there is little doubt that almost all brands are growing, we are particularly interested in hearing about the progress at Twin Peaks, by far their largest brand in terms of contribution to total corporate cash flow. Average volumes at Twin Peaks are approaching $5M and were at last report comping positively over last year and even more so over 2019. With total units approaching 100, public announcements summarized below have indicated that the development pipeline is rapidly building. Since every location, with a 5% royalty, generates about $250k to FAT’s cash flow, the cumulative effect of Twin Peaks’ unit growth is material.

On September 12th, Twin Peaks announced an area development agreements with Music City Consulting to open eight franchise locations in North Carolina and a deal with JEB Food Group to open four more locations in the Louisville area. On September 8th, Twin Peaks announced that the brand has executed an area development agreement with JEB Food Group to open four more locations near the River City. JEB already operates Twin Peaks locations in Beavercreek and West Chester, Ohio, as well as Florence, Kentucky, and owns the iconic Circle M Crawfish Restaurant in East Texas. By extending its previous agreement JEB will now be able to develop and operate a total of 12 restaurants. The plans are to expand more around Cincinnati and Columbus, while also growing in Louisville and southern Indiana.

On August 08, 2022, Twin Peaks CEO Joe Hummel announced that Vice President of Franchise Development Glenn Moon and his team are seeking development opportunities overseas in Brazil, Canada, Columbia, India and more countries throughout the world. After inking multiple development agreements totaling 21 incremental new lodges last year in the U.S., Moon’s team has already eclipsed that number in 2022 with 22 new lodges signed year to date and another 10 to 16 in the final stages of execution.

We will summarize FAT Brands’ Q3 results and conference call commentary in the near future.

Roger Lipton

https://viavid.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1574400&tp_key=c3f2777812