SEMI-MONTHLY FISCAL/MONETARY UPDATE – GOLD TAKES OFF, FOR GOOD REASON !!
The general equity markets were down materially in May, the worst month in about eight years. The bond market firmed up, as it becomes clearer that the economy is slowing and Quantitative Tightening (QT) is ending. Gold bullion was higher by 1.5%. The average of the gold mining ETFs (GDX and GDXJ) were up 2.0%. The three precious metal mutual funds that we monitor (TGLDX, OPGSX, and INIVX) did a little better on average, up 3.7%. Considering how strong the US Dollar has been, and the strength in the stock market until just recently, gold bullion and the gold mining stocks have held up pretty well for the month and the year. Once again, the prospect for a major move in gold bullion and an even larger move in the gold mining stocks has only improved with time. The longer the fundamental fiscal/monetary trends that we have discussed continue, the larger the upswing will be. Gold bullion broke above $1300 per oz. just last Friday and is up over 1% today. The gold miners are also trading higher. The “consolidation” in the price of gold, and the gold miners, has been longer than we anticipated, but the last few days could be the resumption of the long term bull market in precious metal related assets. It’s been said that “in any crisis, you have a choice or either looking like a fool before, or after, the event. Based our long stated conviction that gold related securities represent the most underpriced asset class, we are in the former group at the moment. We believe that there will be a great number of observers who, upon reflection, say: “How could I have not seen this coming?”
The fundamental developments over the last month that come to mind are the following:
- The economy is weakening and tighter money is behind us. A renewed era of easier money and lower interest rates should be a tailwind for precious metal prices.
- Gold bullion continues to be aggressively accumulated by Central Banks, China (way understated) and Russia most notably. Russia has bought over 200 tons annually for four years in a row, at the same time almost eliminating their holdings of US Treasuries.
- The US deficit for the year ending 9/30/19 will be comfortably over $1 trillion. Be aware that the cumulative deficit is frozen” at just over $22 trillion because the US has reached its debt “ceiling”. The cumulative number will stair step to close to $23 trillion when Congress acts in the next few months. Furthermore, it is virtually guaranteed that the US is within a year of $24 trillion, and not far from $25 trillion by January 2021 when a new (or old) administration could consider adjustments. Of course, neither Donald Trump nor any of the Democratic candidates seem likely to reduce entitlements, which is the only remedy. Compounding the problem, the fiscal/monetary trends so evident in the US are also in place in Europe, China and Japan, the next three most important economies.
There are only two ways out of the worldwide debt burden. One option is outright default. The alternative is “unstated” default by paying off the debt with paper currencies depreciated by major inflation, and that is the new stated mandate of central banks worldwide. The gold price and the gold mining stocks will be major beneficiaries.