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DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) TAKEN OUT AND SHOT (AGAIN) – WHAT’S GOING ON ??

DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) TAKEN OUT AND SHOT (AGAIN) – WHAT’S GOING ON ??

This situation, as it is playing out, is no surprise to our readers. The Q2’19 release met the earnings expectations but missed on the comps, and the company lowered guidance by 5-10% for the current full year, implying a relatively weak second half. You can read all the details elsewhere, including the conference call transcript, but a summary of Q2 includes:

Operating Income was up 0.6%, Net Income  was down 4.1% but EPS was up 7.1% on fewer shares outstanding. Corporate EBITDA was up 5.3% but down 60 basis points as a percentage of sales (still an impressive 22.9%, down from 33.5%). Store Operating Income (EBITDA) was up 4.8%, but down 90 bp as a percentage of sales (still an impressive 28.9%, down from 29.8%). Food & Beverage comps were down 3.2%. Amusements & Other were down 0.8%. Amusements and Other now represents 60% of total sales, up 80 bp from ’18. It continues to be the case that Dave & Buster’s is more of an indoor amusement park than a restaurant. It  is worth noting the lackluster comps were attributed largely to the difficult comparisons with the rollout a year ago of the Virtual Reality platform.  While we can’t know how much of the Amusement comp in ’18 came from the heavily promoted Virtual Reality, the Amusement comp in Q 2’18 was down 1.2%, the Food and Beverage comp was down 4.1%.

Management adjusted guidance for all of ’19. Comp Sales will be down 2.0-3.5% (vs. -1.5 to +0.5). Net income will be $91-$100M (vs. $103-113M). The tax rate will be (unchanged from prior guidance) at 22.0-22.5%. The shares outstanding will be about 34.0M instead of 36.5M, as a result of share repurchases. EBITDA will be $272-282M ($274-284M excluding $2M in one time charges), (vs. 283-$295M previously) . Capex will be $200-210M (vs $190-200M). In summary, comps will be a point or two less than previously expected, Net Income will be about 10% less, EBITDA will be about 4% less. EPS expectations will approximately unchanged, up about 10%, protected mostly by the large stock buyback.

CONCLUSION

We have written extensively about Dave & Buster’s over the last two years, and we provide below the most recent articles. The sum and substance of this situation is that the Company is spending hundreds of millions of dollars but is barely increasing corporate EBITDA.  The chart below shows how the incremental return on the dollars spent continues to deteriorate. Management continues to do their best to get a better return from the square footage dedicated to Food & Beverage, as well as re-invigorate the Amusement offerings. The “culture” within a restaurant chain is a challenge to improve and Amusements is basically a “hit driven” business with a high level of unpredictability. Considering the above, and the information provided in our previous discussions, though PLAY is down 8% today and down about 40% from its high of 2017 and 2018, we don’t view PLAY as a bargain at $40/share.

Roger Lipton

JUNE 12, 2019

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DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – TAKEN OUT AND SHOT, IS IT REALLY THIS BAD?

Dave & Buster’s reported first quarter, ending 4/30, results last evening and their stock is trading down 22% this morning. The results were only modestly disappointing, and guidance was lowered just slightly, so the stock market reaction could be considered severely overdone. However, as our readers have been informed for almost two years now, the underlying business has been deteriorating for quite some time and that is now becoming clear to almost all observers. First, the Q1 results, not so bad:

EPS was $1.13 vs $1.04 last year. EBITDA was up 3.2%, adjusted EBITDA up 2.4%. Total revenues were up 9.5%. Same store sales were up 0.3%, a point or so less than expected, which management attributed to weather and disappointment related to sales over the Easter holiday. Seven new stores were opened, and “new store performance remained strong”. Previous trends relating to increased sales at Amusements (comps up 1.8%) and decreased sales at Food & Beverage (comps down 3.3%) continued. The details were less comforting, to be sure. Operating Income was down 1.5%, down 170bp to 15.9%. Net Income $42.4M vs. $42.2M, so EPS was higher due to a lower share count. Though EBITDA was up 3.2%, it was down 150bp to a still impressive 24.4% of revenues. Adjusted EBITDA was down 290bp to 27.0%. Store Operating Income was up 3.6%, but down 180 bp to a still impressive 31.0%.

Guidance was lowered just slightly for all of fiscal 2019, ending 2/2/20: Revenues will be $1.365-1.39B, vs. $1.37-1.4B previously. Comps will be -1.5 to +0.5 instead of Flat to +1.5%. Net Income will be $103-113M instead of $105-117M. EBITDA will be $283-295M instead of $285-300M.

So: on the surface, results were affected by weather and a calendar shift, and the full year is adjusted mostly to reflect the first quarter shortfall.

However: there is no tangible reason to think that trends will improve. As discussed on the conference call: The second quarter has started off “choppy”. Virtual Reality has not provided much of a lift, extra labor is involved, volatility is to be expected in this “hit driven” area, and pricing of this attraction is still a question mark of sorts. Food & Beverage initiatives, including a Fast Casual test, haven’t paid off yet even if customer surveys are promising. Competition was called out, once again, as a negative factor, and is not expected to abate.

There is a lot more detail we could provide, but, in the interest of getting this summary out as promptly as possible, you get the picture.

Conclusion:

PLAY may now seem like an attractive turnaround speculation since it now trades near its lowest price in several years, and the valuation does not seem expensive at about 13.5x ’19 earnings and 6.5x trailing EBITDA. New store returns continue to be attractive and the Company as a whole throws off a great deal of apparent free cash flow which can be used  for new stores, dividends and stock buybacks. However, as we have described several times over the last two years, the underlying long term trends are challenging and expected to remain so. Earnings and EBITDA have been essentially flat for several years now, the Company has spent over half a billion dollars to keep it that way, and there is no predictable reason to expect improvement. Deteriorating returns on investment do not make for a premium valuation so we considered PLAY adequately valued at the current time.

 

REPRINTED BELOW FROM 4/15/19 – DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – REPORTS Q4 AND ’18 YEAR – IMPORTANT OVERVIEW !!

We take a long term view. This management team, led by previous CEO, Stephen King, who stepped up to Chairman in August, did a fine job of refurbishing the brand prior to bringing D&B public again in late 2014. It is important to note that hundreds of millions of dollars were spent in that effort, and it would have been disappointing indeed if operating results had not improved dramatically for at least a few years.

We have pointed out in our previous commentary that the return on the incremental investment is shrinking, just as it did when D&B was publicly held the last time. We update that discussion with the following table, which starkly shows this trend.

 

 

You can see that capex was $162M in calendar 2015, and the operating results were still ramping up, to the new “plateau” of $143M in pretax income in calendar 2016.

After that improvement demonstrated by calendar 2016 results as a result of previous spending: ($181M was spent in 2016(but we assume couldn’t have affected  the $143M of Pretax Income by much), on top of $181M in 2016, an additional 219M was spent in 2017, $216M in 2018 (a total of $616M), and pretax income is projected to be the same in 2019 ($135-150M) as 2016 ($143M).

In essence: after the ramping of results through calendar 2016, presumably as a result of the last re-invention , ($181M in 2016, 219M in 2017, and $216M, a total of $616M) will have been spent, Pretax Income will have been essentially flat, and EBITDA will be up about 30M. That’s zero current return on a pretax income basis, only about 5% on an EBITDA basis, and (we have to say again) depreciation is not free cash flow.

Management could counter that three years is not the end of the story, and there is no doubt a “tail” in terms of return on upfront investment. On the other hand, it is pretty clear that continual refurbishment of this concept is a requirement. It’s also a major feature of this story that new locations have a huge first year return. That is no doubt true, but that would mean that new stores are providing a very large part of the total results, and older stores are falling off sharply. If there is a first year return of over 50% on new stores, that would be something like $100M on the last 15-16 stores, $200M on the other 110.

In any case, if earnings at PLAY are going to continue to grow, at say 10-20% annually, more new stores have to open, materially more than the 10-12% budgeted (some of them with a smaller footprint), to offset the declining contribution from the growing base of mature stores where contribution is declining.

While most analysts may not want to talk about this strategic reality, it’s possible that PLAY’s price performance, essentially flat for the last two years, is reflecting the above discussion. At only 18x projected earnings and about 8.5x last twelve months EBITDA, the stock might seem attractive when the first year cash on cash returns for new stores  are over 50%. However, the longer term view indicates that it will be increasingly difficult to build upon the current results, especially in a retail environment that is generally unforgiving.

REPRINTED BELOW FROM 9/17/18 – DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) REPORTS Q2 – STOCK UP 7% – HOW IS BIG BET ON VIRTUAL REALITY DOING?

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment reported their Q2, ending 8/5/18, last Thursday, and the stock responded positively, up 7-8% on the slight sales “beat”, the more material EPS beat, and positive company commentary regarding results of the new Virtual Reality platform.

Conclusion: The upward move in PLAY stock was mostly a function of “beating” expectations for comps and EPS, which have been coming down in the last six months, and a short position among traders who are inclined to panic. Forward guidance was raised by the Company, but the amounts were modest, and were reductions in certain negative expectations, rather than inspiring confidence that traffic and margin trends will turn positive any time soon.  On the positive side, initiation of a dividend, providing a yield of about  1%, and continued stock buybacks are positive factors. However, management has distinguished itself by its unwillingness to hold shares outright, promptly selling shares acquired by way of options. On balance, we view PLAY stock as “fairly priced”, with a still strong operating model generating impressive levels of store level EBITDA. This apparent attractiveness, however,  is offset by the risk element of the “fashion driven” Amusement segment that is the main driver of profitability and cash flow.

REPRINTED BELOW FROM 12/11/2017 – DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – THE BATTLE OF THE BULLS AND BEARS !

The Positives:

  • (1) Cash on cash returns are still among the very highest in the restaurant and retail universe.
  • (2) There is a very long runway for future growth, which  has been extended by virtue of the smaller format.
  • (3) The balance sheet continues to be strong, relatively unleveraged, with substantial cash flow for unit expansion, stock repurchase, and dividends possible as well.
  • (4) There is potential improvement in the food element, separately and/or in conjunction with the new smaller format, including a Fast Casual approach to food & beverage.
  • (5) A lower corporate tax rate would improve future after tax EPS, though it obviously would not affect EBITDA.

The Negatives:

  • (1) Comps have been coming down, narrowing overall, with a continuation movement toward Amusements, now 56.9% of revenues. With less than 30% of sales from food, D&B is more of an amusement park than a restaurant.
  • (2) Average Unit Volumes are coming down, at least partially due to the increasing mix of smaller stores.
  • 3) Margins at the store level have been coming down modestly, and may not recover due to higher marketing, higher rents, higher commodity prices, and sluggish traffic trends, especially within the food & beverage segment
  • 4) Competition, and cannibalization is playing an increasing role in suppressing sales and margins.
  • (5) Depreciation, that is the useful life of Amusements,  continues to be an underlying issue. EBITDA is a valid measure of “cash on cash” return at the store level, but it seems to require increasing amounts of original (undepreciated) capital as the years go on.  Noone can be sure of the useful life of Amusements. The Company declares that it is “between five and twenty years”. We discuss this issue at more length in the full Corporate Writeup on our  website (9/14/17) at : https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2017/09/dave-busters-entertainment/.  We have not seen this issued addressed in either company documents or analyst discussions. If our concerns are misguided,  we welcome further discussion of this issue by the company or the money management community.

 

DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – TAKEN OUT AND SHOT (- 22%), IS IT REALLY THIS BAD?

DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – TAKEN OUT AND SHOT, IS IT REALLY THIS BAD?

Dave & Buster’s reported first quarter, ending 4/30, results last evening and their stock is trading down 22% this morning. The results were only modestly disappointing, and guidance was lowered just slightly, so the stock market reaction could be considered severely overdone. However, as our readers have been informed for almost two years now, the underlying business has been deteriorating for quite some time and that is now becoming clear to almost all observers. First, the Q1 results, not so bad:

EPS was $1.13 vs $1.04 last year. EBITDA was up 3.2%, adjusted EBITDA up 2.4%. Total revenues were up 9.5%. Same store sales were up 0.3%, a point or so less than expected, which management attributed to weather and disappointment related to sales over the Easter holiday. Seven new stores were opened, and “new store performance remained strong”. Previous trends relating to increased sales at Amusements (comps up 1.8%) and decreased sales at Food & Beverage (comps down 3.3%) continued. The details were less comforting, to be sure. Operating Income was down 1.5%, down 170bp to 15.9%. Net Income $42.4M vs. $42.2M, so EPS was higher due to a lower share count. Though EBITDA was up 3.2%, it was down 150bp to a still impressive 24.4% of revenues. Adjusted EBITDA was down 290bp to 27.0%. Store Operating Income was up 3.6%, but down 180 bp to a still impressive 31.0%.

Guidance was lowered just slightly for all of fiscal 2019, ending 2/2/20: Revenues will be $1.365-1.39B, vs. $1.37-1.4B previously. Comps will be -1.5 to +0.5 instead of Flat to +1.5%. Net Income will be $103-113M instead of $105-117M. EBITDA will be $283-295M instead of $285-300M.

So: on the surface, results were affected by weather and a calendar shift, and the full year is adjusted mostly to reflect the first quarter shortfall.

However: there is no tangible reason to think that trends will improve. As discussed on the conference call: The second quarter has started off “choppy”. Virtual Reality has not provided much of a lift, extra labor is involved, volatility is to be expected in this “hit driven” area, and pricing of this attraction is still a question mark of sorts. Food & Beverage initiatives, including a Fast Casual test, haven’t paid off yet even if customer surveys are promising. Competition was called out, once again, as a negative factor, and is not expected to abate.

There is a lot more detail we could provide, but, in the interest of getting this summary out as promptly as possible, you get the picture.

Conclusion:

PLAY may now seem like an attractive turnaround speculation since it now trades near its lowest price in several years, and the valuation does not seem expensive at about 13.5x ’19 earnings and 6.5x trailing EBITDA. New store returns continue to be attractive and the Company as a whole throws off a great deal of apparent free cash flow which can be used  for new stores, dividends and stock buybacks. However, as we have described several times over the last two years, the underlying long term trends are challenging and expected to remain so. Earnings and EBITDA have been essentially flat for several years now, the Company has spent over half a billion dollars to keep it that way, and there is no predictable reason to expect improvement. Deteriorating returns on investment do not make for a premium valuation so we considered PLAY adequately valued at the current time.

 

REPRINTED BELOW FROM 4/15/19 – DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – REPORTS Q4 AND ’18 YEAR – IMPORTANT OVERVIEW !!

We take a long term view. This management team, led by previous CEO, Stephen King, who stepped up to Chairman in August, did a fine job of refurbishing the brand prior to bringing D&B public again in late 2014. It is important to note that hundreds of millions of dollars were spent in that effort, and it would have been disappointing indeed if operating results had not improved dramatically for at least a few years.

We have pointed out in our previous commentary that the return on the incremental investment is shrinking, just as it did when D&B was publicly held the last time. We update that discussion with the following table, which starkly shows this trend.

 

 

You can see that capex was $162M in calendar 2015, and the operating results were still ramping up, to the new “plateau” of $143M in pretax income in calendar 2016.

After that improvement demonstrated by calendar 2016 results as a result of previous spending: ($181M was spent in 2016(but we assume couldn’t have affected  the $143M of Pretax Income by much), on top of $181M in 2016, an additional 219M was spent in 2017, $216M in 2018 (a total of $616M), and pretax income is projected to be the same in 2019 ($135-150M) as 2016 ($143M).

In essence: after the ramping of results through calendar 2016, presumably as a result of the last re-invention , ($181M in 2016, 219M in 2017, and $216M, a total of $616M) will have been spent, Pretax Income will have been essentially flat, and EBITDA will be up about 30M. That’s zero current return on a pretax income basis, only about 5% on an EBITDA basis, and (we have to say again) depreciation is not free cash flow.

Management could counter that three years is not the end of the story, and there is no doubt a “tail” in terms of return on upfront investment. On the other hand, it is pretty clear that continual refurbishment of this concept is a requirement. It’s also a major feature of this story that new locations have a huge first year return. That is no doubt true, but that would mean that new stores are providing a very large part of the total results, and older stores are falling off sharply. If there is a first year return of over 50% on new stores, that would be something like $100M on the last 15-16 stores, $200M on the other 110.

In any case, if earnings at PLAY are going to continue to grow, at say 10-20% annually, more new stores have to open, materially more than the 10-12% budgeted (some of them with a smaller footprint), to offset the declining contribution from the growing base of mature stores where contribution is declining.

While most analysts may not want to talk about this strategic reality, it’s possible that PLAY’s price performance, essentially flat for the last two years, is reflecting the above discussion. At only 18x projected earnings and about 8.5x last twelve months EBITDA, the stock might seem attractive when the first year cash on cash returns for new stores  are over 50%. However, the longer term view indicates that it will be increasingly difficult to build upon the current results, especially in a retail environment that is generally unforgiving.

REPRINTED BELOW FROM 9/17/18 – DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) REPORTS Q2 – STOCK UP 7% – HOW IS BIG BET ON VIRTUAL REALITY DOING?

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment reported their Q2, ending 8/5/18, last Thursday, and the stock responded positively, up 7-8% on the slight sales “beat”, the more material EPS beat, and positive company commentary regarding results of the new Virtual Reality platform.

Conclusion: The upward move in PLAY stock was mostly a function of “beating” expectations for comps and EPS, which have been coming down in the last six months, and a short position among traders who are inclined to panic. Forward guidance was raised by the Company, but the amounts were modest, and were reductions in certain negative expectations, rather than inspiring confidence that traffic and margin trends will turn positive any time soon.  On the positive side, initiation of a dividend, providing a yield of about  1%, and continued stock buybacks are positive factors. However, management has distinguished itself by its unwillingness to hold shares outright, promptly selling shares acquired by way of options. On balance, we view PLAY stock as “fairly priced”, with a still strong operating model generating impressive levels of store level EBITDA. This apparent attractiveness, however,  is offset by the risk element of the “fashion driven” Amusement segment that is the main driver of profitability and cash flow.

REPRINTED BELOW FROM 12/11/2017 – DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – THE BATTLE OF THE BULLS AND BEARS !

The Positives:

  • (1) Cash on cash returns are still among the very highest in the restaurant and retail universe.
  • (2) There is a very long runway for future growth, which  has been extended by virtue of the smaller format.
  • (3) The balance sheet continues to be strong, relatively unleveraged, with substantial cash flow for unit expansion, stock repurchase, and dividends possible as well.
  • (4) There is potential improvement in the food element, separately and/or in conjunction with the new smaller format, including a Fast Casual approach to food & beverage.
  • (5) A lower corporate tax rate would improve future after tax EPS, though it obviously would not affect EBITDA.

The Negatives:

  • (1) Comps have been coming down, narrowing overall, with a continuation movement toward Amusements, now 56.9% of revenues. With less than 30% of sales from food, D&B is more of an amusement park than a restaurant.
  • (2) Average Unit Volumes are coming down, at least partially due to the increasing mix of smaller stores.
  • 3) Margins at the store level have been coming down modestly, and may not recover due to higher marketing, higher rents, higher commodity prices, and sluggish traffic trends, especially within the food & beverage segment
  • 4) Competition, and cannibalization is playing an increasing role in suppressing sales and margins.
  • (5) Depreciation, that is the useful life of Amusements,  continues to be an underlying issue. EBITDA is a valid measure of “cash on cash” return at the store level, but it seems to require increasing amounts of original (undepreciated) capital as the years go on.  Noone can be sure of the useful life of Amusements. The Company declares that it is “between five and twenty years”. We discuss this issue at more length in the full Corporate Writeup on our  website (9/14/17) at : https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2017/09/dave-busters-entertainment/.  We have not seen this issued addressed in either company documents or analyst discussions. If our concerns are misguided,  we welcome further discussion of this issue by the company or the money management community.

DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – REPORTS Q4 AND ’18 YEAR – IMPORTANT OVERVIEW !!

 

Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) –  reports Q4 and full ’18 – IMPORTANT OVERVIEW !!

Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) reported their fourth quarter and full calendar ’18, ending 2/3/19.

I should preface the following remarks with the fact neither I nor my affiliates are currently long or short PLAY at the current time, which of course could change at any time.

Rather than rehash the quarter line by line, and make projections that are largely guided by management, we try here (as usual) to provide what we call an unfiltered commentary, in the hope of providing insights that other analysts and money managers hesitate to provide.

The results were slightly better than analysts expected so the stock has rallied several points in a market that is seemingly unforgiving and/or representing a “relief rally”. In a nutshell, comps firmed up a bit in Q4 but operating results were still down for the quarter and the year. Management reiterates that new stores are doing well, the runway for growth is still long, the new virtual reality platforms are promising, and improvements are coming for both Food & Beverages as well as Amusements. Management guidance for calendar ’19 is for results down modestly in terms of pretax income, EBITDA, post tax earnings down somewhat  more because of a higher tax rate.

We take a longer term view. This management team, led by previous CEO, Stephen King, who stepped up to Chairman in August, did a fine job of refurbishing the brand prior to bringing D&B public again in late 2014. It is important to note that hundreds of millions of dollars were spent in that effort, and it would have been disappointing indeed if operating results had not improved dramatically for at least a few years.

We have pointed out in our previous commentary that the return on the incremental investment is shrinking, just as it did when D&B was publicly held the last time. We update that discussion with the following table, which starkly shows this trend.

You can see that capex was $162M in calendar 2015, and the operating results were still ramping up, to the new “plateau” of $143M in pretax income in calendar 2016.

After that improvement demonstrated by calendar 2016 results as a result of previous spending: ($181M was spent in 2016(but we assume couldn’t have affected  the $143M of Pretax Income by much), on top of $181M in 2016, an additional 219M was spent in 2017, $216M in 2018 (a total of $616M), and pretax income is projected to be the same in 2019 ($135-150M) as 2016 ($143M).

In essence: after the ramping of results through calendar 2016, presumably as a result of the last re-invention , ($181M in 2016, 219M in 2017, and $216M, a total of $616M) will have been spent, Pretax Income will have been essentially flat, and EBITDA will be up about 30M. That’s zero current return on a pretax income basis, only about 5% on an EBITDA basis, and (we have to say again) depreciation is not free cash flow.

Management could counter that three years is not the end of the story, and there is no doubt a “tail” in terms of return on upfront investment. On the other hand, it is pretty clear that continual refurbishment of this concept is a requirement. It’s also a major feature of this story that new locations have a huge first year return. That is no doubt true, but that would mean that new stores are providing a very large part of the total results, and older stores are falling off sharply. If there is a first year return of over 50% on new stores, that would be something like $100M on the last 15-16 stores, $200M on the other 110.

In any case, if earnings at PLAY are going to continue to grow, at say 10-20% annually, more new stores have to open, materially more than the 10-12% budgeted (some of them with a smaller footprint), to offset the declining contribution from the growing base of mature stores where contribution is declining.

While most analysts may not want to talk about this strategic reality, it’s possible that PLAY’s price performance, essentially flat for the last two years, is reflecting the above discussion. At only 18x projected earnings and about 8.5x last twelve months EBITDA, the stock might seem attractive when the first year cash on cash returns for new stores  are over 50%. However, the longer term view indicates that it will be increasingly difficult to build upon the current results, especially in a retail environment that is generally unforgiving.

For more information, readers can access our full previous writeups using the “Search” function on our home page.

Roger Lipton

DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) REPORTS Q2 – STOCK UP 7% – HOW IS BIG BET ON VIRTUAL REALITY DOING?

DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) REPORTS Q2 – STOCK UP 7% – HOW IS BIG BET (VIRTUAL REALITY) DOING?

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment reported their Q2, ending 8/5/18, last Thursday, and the stock responded positively, up 7-8% on the slight sales “beat”, the more material EPS beat, and positive company commentary regarding results of the new Virtual Reality platform.

Conclusion: The upward move in PLAY stock was mostly a function of “beating” expectations for comps and EPS, which have been coming down in the last six months, and a short position among traders who are inclined to panic. Forward guidance was raised by the Company, but the amounts were modest, and were reductions in certain negative expectations, rather than inspiring confidence that traffic and margin trends will turn positive any time soon.  On the positive side, initiation of a dividend, providing a yield of about  1%, and continued stock buybacks are positive factors. However, management has distinguished itself by its unwillingness to hold shares outright, promptly selling shares acquired by way of options. On balance, we view PLAY stock as “fairly priced”, with a still strong operating model generating impressive levels of store level EBITDA. This apparent attractiveness, however,  is offset by the risk element of the “fashion driven” Amusement segment that is the main driver of profitability and cash flow.

The most pertinent details of the Q1 report are as follows:

Comp store sales were down 2.4% (estimates were for down 2.7%), on top of a 1.1% increase in ’17. “adjusted” earnings per share was $0.84 vs. $0.59 a year earlier and $0.67 which was the latest analyst estimate.  Adjusted Corporate EBITDA was  up 7.4% on a comp week basis, excluding a litigation settlement in 2017. The comp store decline was driven by 2.6% decrease in walk-in sales, 0.1% increase in special events, negative 1.2% in Amusements and Other, and negative 4.1% in Food & Beverage. Since there were price increases of 1.1% in Beverages and 1.9% in Food, traffic in F&B was negative by 5.5-6.0%.  On a line by line basis: Total cost of sales was 10 bp higher in Q2, reflecting a decline in both F&B and Amusement margins, but helped by the higher percentage of the more profitable Amusement sector. Amusements and Other comprised 59.2% of total revenues up 150 bp YTY, continuing the long term trend toward becoming an Amusement Park rather than a Restaurant. F&B costs were 40 bp higher, Cost of Amusement and Other was 30 bp higher. Payroll and Benefits was 10 bp higher, at 23.1%, due to “deleverage in our comp stores (on the lower comps), the unfavorable impact of about 4% wage inflation and incremental payroll supporting the Virtual Reality launch”. This was partially affset by YTY improvements in the non-comp store set.” Other store operating expenses were up 40 bp, due to higher occupancy costs at non-comp stores, slightly higher marketing expenses that include tests in the digital media space. Management pointed out on the conference call, explaining the slightly higher labor component, that “newer stores tend to be less efficient from a labor  perspective relative to mature stores”. We have to interject here that this has been the case for many years now, and the number of stores opening (versus the mature base) is not rising. We conclude that new stores are therefore costing more per store in opening “inefficiencies”, probably including heavier marketing. Indeed, the strong performance of the newest stores, as described by management, has been a positive recent feature of this situation, and, overall, that’s a good thing. Overall store level EBITDA was down 60 bp YTY, resulting in a still very impressive 29.8%

Wrapping up the P&L discussion of Q2, it seems to us that the fundamentals were “acceptable”, modest sequential improvement, most impressive because of the estimate “beat”. In essence, actual results beat expectations for relatively flat operating income.

Of course, the introduction of the new Virtual Reality platform, the reception of the ride/game, and the general effect on the overall business were very much on everyone’s mind. On the conference call, management indicated that “guest response has been strong and bodes well for future game releases on this platform”. Just as we, and some other observers, had predicted, the Jurassic Park based Virtual Reality ride/game only seemed to help by a point or so (two at the most), and if guests stayed longer, came more frequently, or spent more, neither the Amusement or F&B comps demonstrated it.   We stand by our discussions over the last six months, to which we have linked below, that Virtual Reality is unlikely to be a “game changer” and materially change the lackluster trajectory of comp sales. The Company confirmed what we pointed out months ago, that there is a labor content to this ride/game/platform  because the attraction must be attended to with at least one crew person. The profitability of  this offering may or may not enhance overall margins, because higher margin activities would be taking place in the same space, and it may take more than a point or two of incremental sales to offset the higher labor component. The Jurassic Park Virtual Reality experience was introduced midway through Q2, and Q2 showed higher labor expense. Our observation, about which we have written before, is that the VR platform is one of the quieter places in the  facility. Even when occupied by “riders”, there is very little “energy” in the immediate vicinity, compared to almost all of the rest of the Amusement area. We also question the notion, as suggested by management, that the ride doesn’t have to be attended to at all times. Our observation is that, most of the time, the ride/game has to be “sold” by a well trained attendant. The attendant (or two) that manage this platform, has to be personable, attentive, and diligent in efficiently loading and  unloading riders, as well as cleaning the viewing goggles and seats.

Also on the Conference Call, an intensified focus on the F&B side of the business was described, including a fast casual taco concept that will be installed at a Dallas location this fall. It makes sense to us that many PLAY customers don’t want to sit down for a full fledged meal, but could respond to a taco offering, “on the run”.  It’s possible that  a “food court” of sorts could replace at least part of the current “Bar & Grill” area, and success with this experiment would be a major positive development.

Other than the above, it is more or less “business as usual”, opening stores as planned, the latest class of stores doing well, more Virtual Reality games (and others) to come, more effective promotions, better training. No details were provided as far as the cost of developing Virtual Reality or other games,  the incremental traffic necessary to justify that expense, or the expected lifespan of these offerings. Clearly, though, as we have described before, PLAY is more of an Amusement Park than a Restaurant. With Amusements & Other at almost 60% of total sales, and Alcoholic Beverages about a third of the remaining 40%, only 26-27% is from Food. Since a great deal of capital (the amount not disclosed) is being spent on “proprietary” game content, PLAY becomes dependent on the ability to correctly predict gaming trends, an order of magnitude more risky, than most restaurant/retail operations we can think of.

Conclusion: Stated at the beginning of this discussion

Below are links to our most recent writeups on PLAY

DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – VIRTUAL REALITY GAME/RIDE – WILL IT BE A “GAME CHANGER”

DAVE & BUSTER’S ENTERTAINMENT

 

 

DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – VIRTUAL REALITY GAME/RIDE – WILL IT BE A “GAME CHANGER”

DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – VIRTUAL REALITY GAME/RIDE (based on Jurassic Park) – WILL IT BE A “GAME CHANGER”

Our full descriptive report dated May 3rd

DAVE & BUSTER’S ENTERTAINMENT

and our update on June 19th  (   https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2018/06/dave-busters-play-up-38-in-one-month-whats-going-on/ )

after PLAY stock had run up 38% in one month, presumably because of enthusiasm from the Virtual Reality introduction, can be reviewed.

It seems to us that the hope surrounding a recovery in both amusement and F&B comps revolves around the recent introduction of the Virtual Reality game/ride based on Jurassic Park, and timed to coincide with the latest movie. Now that the game/ride has been in the stores for about a month, we have visited locations at both peak and light dayparts, so we present here our “anecdotal” observations.

In general, the game/ride is often located on the periphery of the amusement section, manned by at least one attendant to check people in with their special $5 ride card (which inconveniently has to be purchased separately at the front desk), seat them, and help them adjust their helmet/goggle. While many riders express enthusiasm as they are bounced around, “scan”, not “kill” the dinosaurs, and get wind blown on their face, we don’t find a great level of excitement by the onlookers. It seemed to us that the “buzz” seems less around this particular attraction than around many other amusements, even if there is a waiting line. While the attendants have indicated that some do come back, the departing riders seemed to have enjoyed it, but don’t seem to be wild about another ride immediately. Quite a few people wander by, look it over, and keep walking. Not many are intrigued enough to linger, though no doubt some will buy their $5 card and come back.

On June 19th, we went through a calculation to show that, based on four sessions per hour ($20.00 for the four seats) and five hours per day, $146,000 per year could be generated or 1.5% of sales in a $10M location. We have observed a waiting line at peak periods, but much lighter use at mid-week times (both day and evening) and some locations are closing it down at 8pm. (This possibly conflicts with a report by SunTrust Robinson Humphrey last week that their field research shows “PLAY is offering this game every day and most hours”, whatever “most” means.) Since the ride is only 5 minutes, we think more like eight sessions per hour (including changeover) is realistic at peak times, but we think an average usage of perhaps 2.5 hours per day (with all four seats occupied) would be a reasonable approximation. That would be 32 riders per hour for 2.5 hours or 80 riders per day generating $400 per day or the same $146,000 per year. We could obviously be off in this rough approximation, but we believe the order of magnitude is close enough. Even if we are low with this approximation over the first several weeks, and we might be, considering the successful Jurassic Park movie premier and the TV support from PLAY, we doubt that it will be any higher than this just a few months from now. One of the key observations by an attendant was that the frequency of use is not building materially, so the necessary word of mouth to build long term usage doesn’t seem to be in play. The “game” aspect of this game/ride does not seem compelling. Riders can “scan” the dinosaurs, and create a personal competition to outscore your co-riders, but the skill level or satisfaction from this aspect is hard to pinpoint. We have taken the ride, and the visuals are impressive. We are admittedly far from the “target audience” but feel like “you’ve seen one dinosaur, you’ve seen them all”.

An important consideration here is whether this new amusement, the updated software when it comes, and other Virtual Reality offerings will reverse the now established negative trend in the amusement section. Management also hopes that customers will stay longer, and spend more, as they wait for their turn with the VR experience. Our guess is NO and NO. Management, and optimistic analysts, have expectations that an exclusive “Halo” game (not VR) to be introduced in late July and additional chapters of Jurassic Park (for late summer and early fall) will re-establish momentum. We have no insight relative to amusements to come, but we don’t believe the Jurassic Park Virtual Reality game/ride, and its future iterations, if they are comparable to what has so far been introduced, will prove to be a “game changer”.

One last thought: Neither management, nor the analytical community, is talking about what the new VR platform has cost to develop, and what the depreciation schedule looks like. There is also a labor component on an hourly basis that is not a factor with most of the other amusements. An attendant, or even two, at peak times, is not a huge factor, but the necessary attendant even when there is light usage becomes a noticeable expense. There has to be an obvious attendant standing by, at virtually every moment of operation.

Roger Lipton

DAVE & BUSTER’S – (PLAY) – UP 38% IN ONE MONTH – WHAT’S GOING ON???

Dave & Buster’s, which we have written described extensively, most recently on May 3rd, calling it a “battleground” between the bulls and bears.

https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2018/05/dave-busters-entertainment/

PLAY ran up in price from $39 to about $47 in the two weeks prior to the earnings report on June 11th. This was based not on the widely expected soft first quarter, but expectations for better results after their new “VIrtual Reality” ride/game is introduced by mid-June. This ride/game is based on the new Jurassic Park movie coming out on June 22nd..

The uninspiring earnings, the comps, the traffic, the margins, the guidance based on the reported first quarter were basically in line with expectations. However, with 16% of the outstanding stock sold short, the absence of even worse results, and the possibility that the new virtual reality presentation will reinvigorate results propelled the stock from $47 to $55. This kind of volatility has become routine as stocks often respond in a dramatic fashion to the supply/demand relationship in the marketplace more than a reasoned response to the actual results. The price action depends more on which multi billion dollar hedge funds are long or short, than the company’s reported results and future guidance.

While the overall business continues to be highly profitable with lots of room for further growth, t is clear that both segments of the business (Amusements and F&B) need to be refreshed, especially in light of increased competition. Food and Beverage has been declining as a percentage of total sales, and Amusements have recently had negative comps as well. Turning around the “culture” on the F&B side of the business will clearly take time. The current question becomes: to what extent can the new Virtual Reality platform help the  Amusement segment?

The Jurassic Park offering is a “Game/Ride”. While I haven’t experienced it, I have seen the installation. It is a moveable platform with four seats. The ride takes about ten minutes, costing $5 .00 per person, so $20.00 for each ten minute session is generated. If we assume five minutes of downtime between sessions, to unload and load new customers, there would be four sessions per hour, generating $80.00 per hour of revenues. There will be one installation per store, the possibility of two in the high volume locations. If we assume an average of five hours per day, that would be $400.00 per day, $2,800 per week, or $145,600 or revenues per year. Obviously, two installations could provide double that. Setting aside the cost of developing this platform, or the expense of “manning” the ride/game, the potential revenues of $145,600 per year per installation, is not a “game changer” in and of itself. It can generate roughly around 1.5% of sales in a $10M facility, which is a modest positive contribution to the Amusement segment which has recently turned down by mid single digits. Assuming the platform is embraced by customers, the key question then revolves around (1) the “staying power”, the frequency, the length of time before customers lose interest (2) the need, and cost, of refreshment of the software, assuming the basic platform can be reconfigured (3) the auxiliary benefits: will new customers come in, will existing customers come more frequently, will all customers stay longer (waiting for their turn) and spend more money, etc.etc.

We indicated in our report of May 3rd that one of the potential positives here is the introduction of attractive new Amusements, including the pending Jurassic Park platform. We do not pretend to know how Jurassic Park, or follow on Virtual  Reality offerings will evolve. We suspect Jurassic Park will be popular at first, possibly very popular. How long it lasts, and management’s ability to build on its potential success is impossible to know. PLAY could well prove to be a dynamic short term investment, even after this recent 38% price appreciation, but I wouldn’t “put it away and forget it”. Stay tuned.

Roger Lipton

DAVE & BUSTER’S ENTERTAINMENT WRITE-UP AND CONCLUSION – click above at “publicly held companies”

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  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
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DAVE & BUSTER’S (PLAY) – THE BATTLE OF THE BULLS AND BEARS!

Dave & Busters’s – (PLAY) – The Battle of the Bulls & Bears!

Recent Development: Per Q3’17 Company Release and Conference Call

http://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-announces-third-quarter-results-and-introduces-new

http://public.viavid.com/player/index.php?id=127327

Dave & Buster’s continued to perform well in a difficult restaurant spending environment, no doubt due to the “experiential” nature of their concept. 56.9% of revenues now comes from Amusements, with about 15% from alcoholic beverages, so slightly less than 30% comes from food.

Comparable stores, 75 out of 101 current locations, showed decreased sales of 1.3%, very close to the 1.1% decrease estimated by analysts, and the storms were responsible for 50 bp of that decrease. The EPS result exceeded analysts estimates by $0.03 per share, but the tax was only 28.7% vs. 37.1% YTY. Pretax income was flat YTY. Corporate operating EBITDA margin was flat at 18.2% of revenues, up 9.8% YTY. Store level operating EBITDA margin was down 20 bp, to a still impressive 25.9% of revenues.

Comp stores sales in Amusements increased 1.1% and in Food & Beverage decreased 4.2%, a continuation of recent trends. It is noteworthy that these results were against a strong quarter a year earlier when overall comps were up 5.9%, including Amusements at 10.4%.

Operating costs were well controlled, total cost of sales down 60 bp, F&B costs up 10 bp with 2.3% in food pricing, 0.8% in beverage pricing, slight commodity inflation. Cost of Amusements was down 80 bp. Labor with benefits was 90 bp better, from lower incentive pay, favorable medical claims, and the leverage from higher Amusement sales. It’s worth noting that average hourly wage inflation was 4.4%. Other store operating expenses were up by 170 bp, driven by higher rent and more marketing. As noted above, store level EBITDA margin was down only 20 bp, to 25.9%.

The balance sheet remained strong, with $316M of debt, just over one time TTM EBITDA. In the current YTD $123.4M of stock has been repurchased, at an average price of $58.76. There remains $147 million available under the current authorization.

Guidance for all of ’17 was adjusted slightly to include a decrease of corporate EBITDA growth to “low to mid teens”. This reflects the impact of the three storms, a delayed opening in Puerto Rico, the challenging macro environment, and pre-opening expenses. Since Adjusted EBITDA was up 17.6% for nine months and EBITDA was up 15.7%, that guidance implies Q4 EBITDA somewhere south of 15%. Corporate EBITDA for Q3 was up 10.8% and Adjusted EBITDA was up 12.0%. Comp sales expectations are being guided lower by about a point to “flat to up 0.75%” for all of ’17, and, importantly, management noted that Q4 has started “slower than expected”.  It was noted that this year includes 53 weeks that helps revenues by about $20M and EBITDA by $4M. It’s unclear whether the Q4 guidance has been “adjusted” for the extra week this year.

Relative to longer term expectations, management discussed at some length that increasing competition is affecting sales, in particular from TopGolf and Main Event, both of whom are expanding aggressively. There is also a cannibalization effect as PLAY opens additional stores in existing markets. As management pointed out, these elements were less prevalent even a couple of years ago. Also, analysts expressed some concern that non-comp units seem to be doing less well lately, relative to the existing comp base.  Management responded that some of the recent stores, while categorized as “large” are not at the top of the size range and with the size mix trending lower, the AUVs should be expected to decline as well. In terms of margin contraction to be expected in Q4 (and perhaps beyond), higher rents higher marketing expense, and higher commodity costs are expected to affect results.

Management declined, until early in ’18 (presumably with final fiscal 1/31/18 results) to provide guidance for next year.

Management described at some length its intention to build a smaller format store, sized from 15k to 20k square feet, with the possibility of 20-40 locations, in smaller markets, over the long term. It is expected that this format, with a cash investment of $5M (excluding Tenant Improvement Allowance) would generate $4-5M revenues, with a “steady state” C/C return in the low 20s. Management emphasized that, while the expected ROIC will be attractive, it is expected to be less than the current legacy locations. The first location would open in Rogers, AK in early ’18. This smaller format provides some extra runway for future growth, above the previously stated 200 or so US locations.

The Positives:

  • (1) Cash on cash returns are still among the very highest in the restaurant and retail universe.
  • (2) There is a very long runway for future growth, which  has been extended by virtue of the smaller format.
  • (3) The balance sheet continues to be strong, relatively unleveraged, with substantial cash flow for unit expansion, stock repurchase, and dividends possible as well.
  • (4) There is potential improvement in the food element, separately and/or in conjunction with the new smaller format, including a Fast Casual approach to food & beverage.
  • (5) A lower corporate tax rate would improve future after tax EPS, though it obviously would not affect EBITDA.

The Negatives:

  • (1) Comps have been coming down, narrowing overall, with a continuation movement toward Amusements, now 56.9% of revenues. With less than 30% of sales from food, D&B is more of an amusement park than a restaurant.
  • (2) Average Unit Volumes are coming down, at least partially due to the increasing mix of smaller stores.
  • 3) Margins at the store level have been coming down modestly, and may not recover due to higher marketing, higher rents, higher commodity prices, and sluggish traffic trends, especially within the food & beverage segment
  • 4) Competition, and cannibalization is playing an increasing role in suppressing sales and margins.
  • (5) Depreciation, that is the useful life of Amusements,  continues to be an underlying issue. EBITDA is a valid measure of “cash on cash” return at the store level, but it seems to require increasing amounts of original (undepreciated) capital as the years go on.  Noone can be sure of the useful life of Amusements. The Company declares that it is “between five and twenty years”. We discuss this issue at more length in the full Corporate Writeup on our  website (9/14/17) at : https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/2017/09/dave-busters-entertainment/.  We have not seen this issued addressed in either company documents or analyst discussions. If our concerns are misguided,  we welcome further discussion of this issue by the company or the money management community.

TAKEAWAYS FROM ICR CONFERENCE (40 RESTAURANT COMPANIES & 2500 ATTENDEES)

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INCLUDED IN YOUR ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION:

  • Broad economic insight. As described in “Restaurants/Retail – Why Bother?” the restaurant and retail industries provide a leading indicator of far broader economic trends. You no longer have to be the last to know.
  • Two to three analytical pieces per week (“Roger’s Rap”) personally written by Roger Lipton describing corporate developments within his industry specialization, including their relevance to the broader economy.
  • Periodic “macro” discussions personally written by Roger Lipton, analyzing fiscal and monetary matters that will likely affect your investments and your business.
  • Opportunity to “Ask Rog” about your personal concerns, regarding individual companies or broader economic trends. Roger will use his best efforts to answer questions submitted, obviously limited by the number of requests . He may answer your question by email directly and/or include your question with his “Roger’s Rap” releases.
  • You are provided access to “Friends of Rog”, depending on your financial and operational needs. The outstanding individuals suggested here, have been personally “vetted” by Roger over decades. Roger receives no compensation based on whether or not use their services.
  • A free copy of the legendary best selling book, How you can Profit from the coming devaluation, as shown at right, written in 1970 by Harry Browne, which predicted the 2000% rise in the price of gold. This profound piece is more relevant today than ever, so Roger re-published it in 2012. This book will help you preserve the fortune you are in the process of accumulating.