FOLLOW THE MONEY – 10/15/25

Readers of this column have hopefully concluded by now that we consider the “real” Money to be gold, rather than the colored paper that is printed in unlimited quantities. We reported here, when the USA froze Russian Dollar holdings three years ago, that the US was in essence “weaponizing” the US Dollar and incentivizing the increasingly obvious anti-Dollar (pro-Gold) diversification. It seems worth noting that a similar urgency has recently developed as President Trump moves to reduce Federal Reserve “independence”, obviously encouraging the currency creation that will further weaken the US Dollar and strengthen gold. Furthermore, virtually every fiscal/monetary policy, as well as foreign policy including defense spending, that the Trump administration employs is supportive of a higher gold price.

You are now reading and hearing how gold bullion and the gold mining stocks, having had the largest move in forty years (up about 50% and 120% respectively in ’25), are “overbought” and the move has run its course. We feel, however, that this conclusion does not reflect the worst worldwide “financial follies” in the 250-year history of the USA. We believe that current fundamentals can logically soon point to a gold price somewhere north of $10,000 per ounce.

Furthermore, the financial discipline that Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker imposed in the early 1980s is unlikely. The annual US operating deficit was about $100 billion in 1980 versus about $2 trillion today. The total US debt was about $1 trillion vs $38 trillion today. Though the US economy is about 6x as large, the problems (adjusted for inflation) are a different order of magnitude, and this does not include the perhaps $100 trillion of unfunded future entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.)  There is nowhere near the necessary political will to bring spending under control. The only realistic approach is to “grow” our way out of the debt and deficits by way of newly created currency which drives all prices higher, including the cost (in unbacked paper currency) of gold, the “real money”.

Rather than viewing the cost of gold as $4000 per ounce, consider that it requires 4000 pieces of colored US printed paper to buy an ounce of gold, and that number is only increasing over time. An ounce of gold can buy roughly the same amount of oil, food, housing, or clothing that it did 20, 50, 100 or 1,000 years ago. It is the unbacked colored paper that becomes worth less over time.

Find a “Maestro” to preside over each restaurant you own. An Italian term normally applied to a musical artistic genius, the definition more broadly includes “individuals who thrive on interpersonal interactions, that want to create something that the audience will want to come back to”. We showcase here a newly opened New York City fast casual restaurant we recently visited that brought this term to mind. Suggested, therefore, is a visit to the new “Olive’s”, an 800 square foot coffee/beer/sandwich shop at 413 Greenwich Street in NYC.  The original Olive’s, opened by Toni Allocca on Prince Street in NYC in 1992, is still a local institution. Husband, Nick, now expresses his artistic attention to detail, as well as his love of people and food through the latest Olive’s opened four months ago. The already loyal customer base is a result of Hartman spending 16 hours every day since opening (except for their wedding anniversary) within the new premises. The space was an early small Sweetgreen, and FWIW a Starbucks three blocks away has since closed. Nick personally designed the restaurant and oversaw every aspect of construction. Both coffee and beer (holding and preparation) equipment are state of the art on a worldwide basis. With appropriate utilization, a clearly superior product is the result, often prepared and presented with passionate verbal dialogue from Hartman (“The Maestro”) himself. Coffee at Olives, where the owner meticulously and artistically builds each cup of coffee, is a world of difference from Starbucks, where in recent years you hardly ever make eye contact with the barista.  The same can be said of the beer, with “flight systems” that rotate seasonally from the 14 taps. The autumn tasting selection, where $9.00 buys three shot-sized glasses of varying “strength”, provides a superior beer drinking experience, vividly differentiating their superior product. At 6pm on a recent Tuesday evening I watched a group of five young professionals come in for a cup of coffee and stay for ninety minutes, during which Maestro Nick treated them like guests in his home (which it has been since its opening). Both Olive’s locations provide guests with a real time example of how a love of people and product, a work ethic, and an attention to detail can still allow for success in an increasingly demanding industry. Danny Meyer and Howard Schultz would still be flattered by the term. Your challenge, with one location is to be The Maestro. The challenge, if you choose to grow, is to clone this incredibly important cultural ingredient. Creation of The Maestro of the Year Award might have special meaning.

Roger Lipton