Denny’s, under the capable leadership of CEO, John Miller, has done a capable job in the last decade, first stabilizing, then building upon the brand’s long tenured reputation. Virtually all the operating metrics have steadily improved as the chain has transitioned to the asset light model. The stock, DENN, which was in the low single digits 15-20 years ago, bottoming below $2.00 per share in early ’09, has obviously rewarded long term shareholders handsomely. Today the Company is able to apply free cash flow and remaining borrowing power to shrink the capitalization further. At the same time, the benefits of the refranchising program and the asset light operating model can increase operating cash flow at a steady rate as international unit growth leads the way, to be augmented by corporate efficiencies. DENN, based on a multiple of EBITDA now sells at a 10-15% discount from its fairly well positioned asset light publicly held peers such as DNKN, QSR, or WEN. While there are some statistically less expensive peers such as DIN (with troubled Applebee’s) and RRGB (where do we start?), those situations are far more challenged than DENN. We therefore consider that DENN can continue to provide above average returns to its shareholders, especially with the operating risks (in a tough economy) mitigated by the transition to an asset light model.
Denny’s Corporation is one of America’s largest full-service restaurant chains. As of December 25, 2019, Denny’s consisted of 1,703 franchised, licensed, and company operated restaurants in the world with combined total annualized sales of about $3 billion. Franchised and licensed units now represent 96% of this total. Denny’s is known as “America’s Diner” and is open 24/7 in most locations. They are best known for their value menu of $2-$4-$6-$8 and the Breakfast Grand Slam which was first introduced in 1977. The strongest statewide presence is in California (384 stores systemwide), Texas (196 locations) and Florida (131 units). Canada with 77 locations, Puerto Rico with 15, Mexico has 11 and the Phillipines with 10 are the top four regions out of the 144 total internationally. Relative to Company operated stores, California with 25, Florida with 9, and Nevada with 7 are the largest markets.
This more than 50 year old brand has been refurbished in the last decade. Investment highlights include: 9 consecutive years of domestic system-wide same store sales growth, 380 new restaurants open since 2011 (over 20% of the system), 74 international locations opened since 2011, Adjusted Free Cash Flow over the 8 years ending 12/18 has allowed for $520M of stock repurchased from 11/10 to 12/19, and the conversion to an asset light operating model is essentially complete. It is important that 35 franchisees with more than 10 restaurants each comprise over 60% of the franchise system. Franchised restaurants have had a 2% CAGR since 2011, and the franchisor’s (non-GAAP) operating margin from this segment has grown steadily to $104M in calendar 2018.
As noted above, $520M of share repurchases have been an important part of “returning cash to shareholders”, in addition to the stock going up by 10x in value over the last ten years. $96M was spent in this regard in 2019 and about $282M remains authorized.
UNIT LEVEL ECONOMICS
UNIT LEVEL ECONOMICS COMMENTARY:
The AUV at Company store was essentially flat (+0.9%) in fiscal 2018. Franchisees’ AUV was up 1.6%. In calendar 2018, Cost of Goods Sold decreased by 70 basis points due to leverage gained from menu price increases and lower commodity costs. Payroll and Benefits increased by 70 basis points due primarily as a result of a 40 basis points increase from minimum wage rate increases and a 30 basis points increase in Incentive Compensations. Occupancy costs increased 30 basis points which was primarily due to a rise in general liability costs. Other Store Expenses increased by 100 basis points as a result of 10 basis points increase in utilities, 20 basis points increase in repairs and maintenance, 10 basis points reduction in marketing costs and a 90 basis points increase in other direct costs – mainly an increase in third-party delivery fees. Store Level EBITDA decreased 130 basis points as a result of the increases in Occupancy and other direct expenses.
In the nine months ending 9/30/19, CGS was down 10 bp to 24.4%, labor was well controlled, down 110 bp to 39.0%, higher was Occupancy which was up 40 bp and Other Expense, up 50bp. The result was an improvement of store level EBITDA, up 30 bp to 15.3% of revenues.
Denny’s has been on an aggressive refranchising program, which resulted in 105 locations transacted in calendar 2019, bringing the franchised/licensed total to 96% of the system. The success in this area over the last twelve months should result in a net benefit of $9-10M of Adjusted Free Cash Flow. In conjunction with this effort, there are currently development commitments for 78 new locations.
SAME STORE SALES COMMENTARY:
The annual numbers are shown above. In the most recent quarter, ending 12/25/19, SSS were up 0.5% for company stores, up 1.8 for domestic franchised restaurants, and up 1.7% for systemwide domestic units.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: (Per 1/13 release of preliminary sales results)
In recent developments, Denny’s is one of the industry leaders on several initiatives. Menu innovation has included the early offering of plant-based protein alternatives featuring Beyond Meat products, with a launch in L.A. in October, 2019, and a systemwide launch in January, 2020. Off-premise options have been focused upon, to the point where off-premise sales has grown 67% to 12% of total sales since the launch of Denny’s on Demand in mid-2017. As part of that effort, 89% of the domestic system offers delivery.
In addition to the always crucial attention to operating details such as menu development, cost control, training, marketing and other areas, there continues to be relatively low hanging financial fruit to be harvested. The improvement in net cash flow from the ’19 refranchising effort is expected to be $9-10M. This is a result of lower EBITDA from the stores sold ($23-30M), more than offset by incremental royalties ($9-12M), incremental rent ($3-4M), and new cost savings initiatives ($11-13M) relative to the franchise system.
The corporate debt as a percentage of trailing twelve months EBITDA at 9/30/19 was temporarily lower at 2.3x, from a high of 3.0x a year ago and the target is 2.5-3.5x. While operating results have not yet been reported for calendar 2019, Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months ending 9/19 was $71.9M, down from $76.8M. It should be noted that Adjusted EBITDA, while only slightly higher the last several years at just over $100M, has been up every year since $2013, when it was $78M, as systemwide sales have grown by about $500M since 2011.
Guidance for 2020 has not been provided, presumably to be provided with the full 2019 report, due on or about February 11th.
CONCLUSION: Provided at the beginning of this article